Shell Houston Open weekend preview
Golf Events
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Editor /
31 March 2007 /
Stuart Appleby clearly enjoys playing at the Shell Houston Open and the Australian is ideally placed at the halfway stage to defend his title and go into next week's US Masters in the best possible frame of mind.
Appleby, champion in 1999 and 2006, has never been headed at the end of a round since the Houston Open moved to the Redstone Golf Club last year and is one of six co-leaders as the tournament enters the weekend.
Appleby is tied at six-under-par with Bob Estes, Jason Gore, DJ Brigman, Bubba Watson and Jeff Maggert, with Hunter Mahan, Tommy Armour III and Tom Byrum one stroke off the lead.
But big names Adam Scott, KJ Choi, Tim Clark and Jason Leonard lie just one shot further back and the event looks wide open after two rounds with an amazing 26 players within three shots of the leaders.
Appleby is still the market favourite and can be backed at 6.2 to complete a hat-trick of titles in the event, ahead of his compatriot Scott who is trading at 9.
Choi is next best at 13, while Watson and Estes also have their followers and are available at 17 and 18 respectively. Maggert is currently on offer at 22 to win, ahead of Clark at 29 and Gore at 30.
But with so many players in contention, there is plenty of value that can be found in the market and it could pay to look further down the field, with all 79 players making the one-over cut mark no worse than seven shots behind the halfway leaders.
Appleby is bidding to following in the footsteps of Curtis Strange and Vijay Singh in becoming a triple winner of the tournament and few players are better qualified to complete victory at the weekend.
The 35-year-old, who romped to victory by six shots last year, clearly loves playing the Tournament course at Redstone and has a stroke average of 67.8 for the six rounds he has played there.
For the first time, Appleby failed to break 70 on Friday as he carded a level-par 72 but he is clearly at home on the Texas venue and looks a sound bet at 2.04 to finish in the first five.
By his own high standards, Scott has had a year to forget so far - especially after his career-best 2006 season when he rocketed up to third in the world rankings.
Scott has looked strangely out of sorts in recent weeks but has been swinging better this week and that has been reflected in his scores of 69 and 71 over the first two days.
The world number five is handily placed to mount a challenge over the weekend and a good performance could not come at a better time with the first major of the season just around the corner.
Scott is trading at 2.4 to place in the top five while an interesting battle is developing in the market to be top Australian, with Appleby available at 1.59 ahead of Scott at 2.24.
Estes, Gore, Brigman and Maggert will be keen to maintain their charge over the weekend and record a home victory on the PGA Tour, but an interesting contender is Watson.
Watson may well be able to smash the ball prodigious distances but his big-hitting has been his downfall on many occasions.
This season has been a different story though. Watson, who is averaging a massive 323.5 yards per drive at Redstone, has already recorded two top-ten finishes in eight starts and carded a best-of-the-day 67 in the second round on Friday.
The course lay-out looks to suit his game and this may be Watson's week. He can be backed at 3.5 to come in the top five.
Choi is trading at a similar price and, like many of his rivals, will be seeking a confidence booster before moving on to the US Masters next week.
Clark, playing in only his third event of the season after a neck injury, finished runner-up at Augusta in 2006 and looks to running into form at the right time after successive rounds of 70.
Swede Daniel Chopra has enjoyed a fine season to date and could be the player to follow at the weekend as he lies just two shots off the lead at four-under par.
The fast greens seem to suit his game as he is one of the best putters in the world and he looks an attractive bet at 34 to win and 6 to come in the first five. He is also now favourite to finish as the top European this week at 2.94, ahead of Padraig Harrington (3.45) and Alex Cejka (6).
Arron Oberholser, who is three under with the likes of Steve Stricker, Vaughn Taylor and Bernhard Langer and trading at 40 to win, has brought his game to the boil nicely over the last few months and is unlikely to be too far away on Sunday.
Taylor (42) and Stricker (44) are also fancied to challenge, while it would be foolish to write off the veteran Langer.
There are few shrewder than the double US Masters champion on the course and, at 130 to win and 15 to finish in the top five, the German appears to be very well priced.
The European trio of Harrington (40 to win), David Howell (180) and Lee Westwood (150) are also close enough, if they play well, to win at one-under, five strokes off the lead. All have shown encouraging signs this week that their games are moving in the right direction.
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