Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 September 2009 /

English duo are fancied to go well at Gut Larchenhof where great players usually come out on top, says Paul Krishnamurty

As we enter the last 10 weeks of the European Tour season, the inaugural Race to Dubai is hotting up. In years gone by the handful of lucrative events during September and October, of which this week's Mercedes Benz Championship is one, have proved largely decisive in determining the money list. That won't really be the case anymore, because of the new big-money events in the Middle East that are yet to come, but a win in Germany for one of the big names will still go a long way towards positioning for the final charge.

Significant injury news has recently thrown the race wide open. For the first half of the season, my initial tip Paul Casey dominated affairs, before getting injured at the worst possible time; forcing him to miss the last WGC event and USPGA. He's still not back in action, and that absence has allowed Martin Kaymer to take over at the head of affairs. However, the leader's curse has struck again, with Kaymer now forecast to miss the next few weeks with a broken foot.

While these developments are quite a sickening, if not fatal, blow to Casey and Kaymer backers, it's great news for the chasing pack. Three well-placed candidates particularly stand out as likely beneficiaries - Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Ross Fisher. The last two tee it up in Germany, where the €320,000 first prize would go a long way towards closing their current deficit, which in both cases is less than half a million.

In many respects, the Mercedes Benz Championship looks a golden opportunity for this world-class pair, as it is an event where the best players repeatedly rise to the top of the leaderboard. All four winners at Gut Larchenhof since 2004 have been top-class, including major champions Retief Goosen and Padraig Harrington. Ten of the 21 players to make the top-5 have either Ryder or Presidents Cup experience, and only three of those places were filled by 100/1 chances.

Westwood and Fisher can also draw encouragement from Robert Karlsson's victory here last year en route to the Order of Merit. Karlsson had been the best player in Europe all summer, challenging virtually every week, but just couldn't get his head over the winning line. Ending that frustrating run at Gut Larchenhof proved to be the perfect launching pad for the best spell of his career during the autumn, which also produced big wins in the Dunhill Links and the World Cup alongside Henrik Stenson.

There are obvious parallels to be drawn with Karlsson's earlier 2008 form and that of Fisher and Westwood this season. Both have been outstanding without getting the luck when it mattered. Just as Karlsson made the top-10 in the first three majors of 2008, Fisher and Westwood have held strong chances down the stretch in two majors apiece this year. The fact they hold such prominent positions on the money list despite failing to win an event is testimony to their tremendous consistency.

Its also worth noting that both players have already proved their liking for Gut Larchenhof, finishing 3rd and 6th last year. Besides a bet on each at [13.0] to win this event, it makes sense to back them both for the Race to Dubai market, where Westwood is currently available at [7.2], and Fisher at [8.4]. At least one of them looks bound to be there or thereabouts at the finish.

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