Dave Tindall makes a case for a trio of players to go well in round one at Liberty National...
"The South African was third after day one of the Open Championship and in his three previous first laps he'd shot a 66 in each."
Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 6 places
Weather forecast for Liberty National, New Jersey: It's a case of everything goes up a little in the afternoon. In the morning, we have temps in the mid-to-high 70s and winds around 8mph while, by 3pm, temps are just below 90 with wind speed nudging up to 10mph. There's a realistic threat of rain throughout the day.
First-round leader history at Liberty National:
2013 - Kevin Stadler (64)
2009 - Paul Goydos, Steve Marino, Sergio Garcia (64)
Strategy: There's very little to go on here to be honest. In 2013, lengthy weather delays meant the first round carried over to Friday. In 2009, five tees were moved forward to make it a much easier test that day. Goydos and Marino were early starters, with Sergio going off in the afternoon. There's no obvious weather bias but with temps warmer and a slightly greater chance of rain in the morning, I favour the afternoon wave.
Frittelli can start fast
Dylan Frittelli certainly won't forget July 2019 in a hurry after securing his first PGA Tour win and making an impression on the leaderboard for three days at Royal Portrush.
But those exploits are rather being overlooked this week - especially in the first-round market.
The South African was third after day one of the Open Championship and in his three previous first laps he'd shot a 66 in each (John Deere, 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage).
Also third after day one of the Wells Fargo, Frittelli missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship last week in his first start since The Open but hardly did much wrong by shooting 71-68.
He enters this week ranked 53rd in the FedEx Cup standings so still has work to do to try and play his way in to the top 30 who contest the season-ending Tour Championship in two weeks' time.
Frittelli was in the top 15 for SG: Tee to Green in both the 3M Open and John Deere and on the Bentgrass greens (same surfaces this week) of TPC Deere Run, he ranked second for SG: Putting.
The 110/1 shot will tee off at 12:22pm.
Put faith in Fleetwood
A more straightforward selection for my second pick.
Tommy Fleetwood has been in superb form of late, finishing runner-up in The Open and tied fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and I've put him up in my outright preview.
He's 40/1 in the first-round leader market and that definitely takes my eye too.
The Englishman has ranked fifth and first SG: Tee to Green in his last two measured starts (he was likely high up those rankings at Royal Portrush too).
He's also been driving the ball great in recent weeks and, although history is sparse, evidence from the two editions at Liberty National suggests that ball-striking counts for plenty.
Fleetwood was the first-round leader at The Players Championship earlier this year and was third after the opening lap at The Open and the PGA Championship.
The latter, of course, was at nearby Bethpage Black and "Go Tammy" seems to love playing in front of the New York/New Jersey crowds.
He was fifth after R1 of this event last year, finished runner-up in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and was third after 18 holes at Bethpage.
Fleetwood is a 12:44pm starter.
There were several contenders for my final pick but due to his eye-catching SG: Tee to Green stats, I'll side with Ryan Palmer.
He gained over 10 shots on the field at the Barracuda Championship last time when finishing tied seventh and also gained over eight strokes TTG at both John Deere and Colonial so he's striking the ball superbly at the moment.
Palmer certainly enjoyed his trip to New Jersey last year when finishing in the top five at Ridgewood (opened with 68) and he also took sixth at nearby Plainfield in 2015.
Going back a little further, he's also been both second and third after day one in this event.
As for recent fast start, he was fourth after Thursday's play at the John Deere after a 65.
Take the juicy 95/1 for the 1:06pm starter.
Dave's 2019 R1 leader P/L (based on £5 ew per selection)