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The American Express: Knox can be desert Fox

Dave Tindall
14 January 2020

Russell Knox can lift the trophy

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The PGA Tour heads back to the American mainland this week with Betfair Sportsbook paying eight places, and Dave Tindall has three each-way selections for the action in California...

"Of more importance is that he's already got his season up and running with a steady tied 32nd in the Sony Open, his week at Waialae including a second-round 65. He also ranked second for greens in regulation there."

Main Bet: Russell Knox each-way @ 50/1

The American Express (previously the Bob Hope, the Humana, the Desert Classic etc) has been a strange event down the years and easy to get on the wrong side of.

At the start of the last decade, one underlying trend was that overseas players didn't tend to win it: there had been just three since Arnold Palmer won the first in 1960.

As it takes place in California, there may also have been a temptation to pick West Coast specialists.

And yet from 2010 we had a Venezuelan and a Spaniard lift the trophy while the American winners were from North Carolina (twice), Texas (twice), Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Louisiana. The majority, therefore, were from the southern states.

Those are places we may associate with bermuda grass so puzzle solved given that those are the surfaces being used this week? Well, no, this bermuda is overseeded and plays very differently.

Adding to the mystery is that this is a birdie-fest so why is a poor putter like Jason Dufner winning (2016). And how on earth can anyone explain Adam Long beating Phil Mickelson and Adam Hadwin last year?

But let's keep digging.

Since 2014, 78% of those to have made the top three had played one of the two Hawaii events while 70% had posted a previous top 25 at the course.

It's not foolproof but a starting point of someone who played in Hawaii and has course form makes sense.

One I really like the look of is Russell Knox.

The Scot is Florida-based although his father was actually born in California so there's a link if you want one.

Of more importance is that he's already got his season up and running with a steady tied 32nd in the Sony Open, his week at Waialae including a second-round 65. He also ranked second for greens in regulation there.

He ended 2019 with a top 20 at the RSM Classic - middle rounds of 65 and 64 - and was T11 in Bermuda two starts before that after opening with a 64 so his form is encouraging and he's been firing some low rounds.

Knox has played this event twice, finishing tied 29th in 2018 and tied 18th last year, shooting a 64 (a number he clearly likes) in both editions.

He also some some good form at TPC Scottsdale with T10 last year and T15 on his 2015 debut and form from that event correlates well. It's also played in the desert and requires low scoring so there's logic behind it.

Finally, it's a pro-am this week and Knox's one start amongst the celebs at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in his Scottish homeland last year produced a top 15 (fifth at halfway) so he ticks that box too.

A WGC winner at the 2015 HSBC Champions with 20-under, he can go low and all in all the 34-year-old looks a good bet at 50/1.

Next Best: Daniel Berger each-way @ 66/1

Daniel Berger we may think of as more east coast than west and that's easy to see why as he's Florida-based and first shot to fame when being edged out by Padraig Harrington at the 2015 Honda Classic.

His two wins have come in the south east and both were at the FedEx St Jude. Classic.

But he's done enough out west to suggest he can get involved in the finish here.

Berger shook off some rust by finishing tied 38th in the Sony Open and shot four consistent rounds of 70-70-69-69 along the way.

While not pulling up any trees, he had a solid finish to 2019 with top 25s (two of them top 20s) in his final four events and in his last two - Sony and Zozo - he's ranked in the top three for greens in regulation.

As for this event, Berger played it for the first time last year and fired 67-67-69-68 for tied 12th.

That shouldn't have come as a surprise as the 26-year-old had previously shown his desert credentials in the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he'd boasted form of 10-58-7-11.

Expanding on that a little, he was second after 18 holes at TPC Scottsdale in 2015 and fifth with a round to go in 2018.

Add in tied 18th in October's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in Vegas and Berger can clearly do well in these west coast, desert events.

Take the 66/1.

Final Bet: Zach Johnson each-way @ 70/1

So far this year/decade, both PGA Tour events have been won by players who took part in the Presidents Cup. Justin Thomas won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Cameron Smith landed the Sony Open.

Therefore, how about another player who was at Royal Melbourne - although there's a slight twist here.

Zach Johnson was indeed in the American camp but this time as a vice-captain rather than a player.

Nevertheless, he was clearly buzzing after the United States' come-from-behind win and he talked about it at last week's Sony Open.

"I mean, yeah, I didn't get a whole lot of practice the first part of December, but that's okay. I was working. I was wearing another hat, if you will.

"But, I mean, at the same time, there was motivation and inspiration involved there watching those guys, especially on the weekend rally the way they did. And even closing out some of those matches on Thursday and Friday was impressive, too.

"So there was some inspiring golf. And, yeah, I worked after that. I worked pretty hard. I was anxious to get back and start practising again."

After a poor 2019, the double major winner had a rethink at the back end of the season and he saw a few early results with tied 14th at the Sanderson Farms and tied 23rd at the Mayakoba.

He continued his progress with tied 28th at the Sony Open and this week's course could be a good one for him.

Johnson has finished T28 and T20 here in the last two years and was fourth at halfway in 2018 after a Friday 64, a score he matched in round three 12 months ago.

As for other desert form, he has a top 10 in Vegas and three top 15s in his last five visits to the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

One final more esoteric point. One of the courses in play here is a Pete Dye track and, of course, the legendary designer passed away last week.

Johnson reeled off several Dye stories when asked about him at the Sony Open, revealing that they'd once played in a pro-am together. A tiny bit of inspiration to add to his already-established credentials perhaps?

Nine of Johnson's last 10 PGA Tour wins have been achieved with 15-under or lower and two of those were 20-under and 21-under. In other words, he knows how to go low and that counts with this event being won with -26, -22 and -20 the last three years.

Take the 70/1.