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Sanderson Farms Championship: Take a chance on Troy

Dave Tindall
25 October 2017

Troy Merritt can go low again

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Dave Tindall previews this week's PGA Tour event in Mississippi - the Sanderson Farms Championship at Jackson Country Club...

"For those who've watched the American's career closely, it's obvious that he likes to throw in low numbers, sometimes absurdly low ones."

Main Bet: Back Troy Merritt @ 66/1

Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 7 places

Main Bet: Back Troy Merritt e.w. @ 66/1

With winning scores of -20, -18 and -16 since the tournament moved to the Country Club of Jackson, anyone looking to challenge for the Sanderson Farms Championship will need the birdie count to be high.

Last year's winner Cody Gribble topped the charts with 26 and no-one who made the top five did so without registering at least 20 par breakers (in Xander Schauffele's case, 18 birdies and two eagles).

Troy Merritt just missed out on the places after firing 18 red numbers but his T11 was a good effort and suggests this is a good track for him.

For those who've watched the American's career closely, it's obvious that he likes to throw in low numbers, sometimes absurdly low ones.

It started in his college days, he continued it when winning 2009 Q-School with 22-under and he's carried it onto the PGA Tour.

In 2015, the 31-year-old matched the course record at Hilton Head after carding a 61 and he shot another 61 on the way to a three-stroke victory in the Quicken Loans National later that year, winning with -18.

It's a trait we saw more of in the 2016/17 season. Merritt opened with a 65 to take T8 in June's Travelers Championship, closed with a 64 at the Barbasol, posted a third-round 65 to take T28 in the Wyndham Championship and added yet another 65 when T6 in the Web.Com's DAP Championship last month.

That followed a top 10 in the Boise Open a week earlier.

He even shot a 65 when missing the Greenbrier cut so when he's on, this is a player who will keep pushing and pushing and ignore trying to protect a score.

"I have a knack for going low every now and then," he once said. "Just take a one shot at a time, focus on targets, hit the shots and then just commit to lines."

Never afraid to miss a bunch of cuts in search of improvement, Merritt had to settle for T69 on his 2017/2018 debut at the Safeway Open but his run of 32-6-9 over the Web.com finals offers some reassuring current form to go with his course form.

He's actually in the first group out on Thursday morning so has a shiny, new, perfectly manicured course on which to go out and post a score.

Let's hope he can cash in and make his 66/1 look generous.

Next Best: Back Robert Garrigus e.w. @ 45/1

Looking at last season's top birdie makers throws up an unsurprising top eight of Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose.

The elite names continue as you go down the list (Dustin Johnson in T11) and, obviously, all those leading players are either playing the WGC-HSBC in China or having the week off rather than contesting this rather low-key opposite event.

The highest-ranked player from that list taking part at the Sanderson Farms is Robert Garrigus in T14 and that immediately makes him worthy of closer inspection.

Course form? One visit and a finish of T70 doesn't seem to help much but he was actually T11 after round one and T12 at halfway after opening 67-69 so perhaps there is some encouragement.

Garrigus is 39 now, so of that age where a significant birthday may just cause him to reassess.

The big 4-0 comes on November 11 and there were signs over the summer that the man from Idaho was having a bit of a push after a run of three straight top 10s at the Barbasol (T10), Canadian Open (T5) and Barracuda Championship (T6).

He made 21 birdies at the Barbasol and then 20 and three eagles in Canada. The Barracuda used a Stableford format but I found his scorecard and it showed 25 birdies and an eagle.

Talking at the Barracuda Championship about that upsurge in form and recording three straight top 10s for the first time in his career, Garrigus said: "It really started seven weeks ago in Travelers. I missed the cut by a shot, but I felt my game was coming around. I made the cut at Quicken Loans and Greenbrier. Then John Deere, had a little setback there with disqualification.

"That lit a fire under my butt and now I finished 10th and 5th, and whatever I finish here. But I like my form going into the next month and a half. I'll probably take the next two weeks off, which I really, really needed two weeks off. So I'll be fresh and ready to go for the playoffs."

Unfortunately, he crashed out of the playoffs after missing the cut at the Northern Trust Open and then the clubs went away until he returned at the Safeway Open with a T65.

I'm hoping that took a little rust off and he'll be ready to go again.

Certainly, this is a track where he can attack and go birdie/eagle hunting again and, on what he's done recently compared to others much shorter in the betting, the 45/1 could look big on Sunday evening.

It's been a long time between drinks since he won the Children's Miracle Network Classic (with -21) in November 2010 but this is a very weak field and Garrigus, three times a play-off loser, can finally get that second win.

Final Bet: Back Ryan Armour e.w. @ 100/1

For a third pick, I did look at Ben Martin, who is about as reliable a pick as there is given that he covers both course and current form.

For the former, he was T18 last year and T29 on his only other start in 2014.

As for current play, Martin was T17 last time out at the Safeway Open, top 15 at August's Barracuda Championship and posted a pair of top sixes in July at the Quicken Loans and Barbasol.

But 28/1 doesn't really float my boat and nor does it for market leader Chesson Hadley at 18s.

Chris Kirk and William McGirt have both done good things at higher levels but, again, 22/1 isn't pulling me in.

I managed to somehow land a 100/1 winner in this last year when putting up Cody Gribble so I'll try another three-figure punt, this time on Ryan Armour.

Again, recent low scoring is the key.

In August's Wyndham Championship, the 41-year-old shot a 61 in round two and a closing 64 to register a top four finish with 17-under.

He then took that hot play into the Web.com's Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship and finished runner-up thanks mainly to a Saturday 65.

Armour opened with a 64 next time before fading but clearly he's putting some good numbers on the board.

He's missed both cuts on this course but did open with a 67 in round one last year to sit in a tie for 12th after 18 holes.

It's also worth noting that his form at Sedgefield was MC-MC-MC before his top four in the Wyndham recently so he can just tear up the course form book.

At his age, you might think he's pretty exposed but perhaps there are signs of him being a late developer.

Last year, less than a month before his 40th birthday, he secured a first win on the Web.com when capturing the Panama Claro Championship. He did so with a final 36 holes of 65-64.

That second place at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship earned him a return to the PGA Tour so this is a good chance to try and make an early impression in company that is hardly daunting.

A final mention to Jonathan Randolph, who is a member here.

He's not turned that into a good result yet despite opening with 68 last year and 69 in 2015 but he did recently finish runner-up at the Boise Open.

That could interest a few at 125/1.

A final note. It wouldn't be the daftest thing in the world to play all three picks - Merritt, Garrigus and Armour - in the first-round leader market.

To win that 18-hole sprint, you need an ability to shoot the lights out so they could be interesting at 75/1, 50/1 and 66/1 respectively.