If you fancy an outsider for the Masters, it might pay to back him now at big odds, then bank some profit if he gets into contention. Paul Krishnamurty explains how in his weekly trading column
"Fredrik Jacobson has probably gained enough Augusta experience and...looks well suited to the course. Jacobson's brilliance on and around these infamous greens should be a significant asset."
Coming off the back of a sixth triple-figure priced winner in the last eight PGA Tour events, there has (in theory) never been a better time to be backing an outsider to win the season's first major. The fact that four of the last six Masters winners started in our price range also bodes well.
One of those outsiders was Angel Cabrera in 2009, and the Argentinian is similarly priced at around 150.0149/1 this time. One should never underestimate the importance of proven course form around this nuanced layout, of which Cabrera can boast plenty. The latest of six top-20s came only two years ago, when trading as favourite during the final round. At 43 age may be against him, but I wouldn't over-react to moderate form figures. Cabrera was never all that consistent and well capable of bouncing back on his favourite tracks. If repeating the long game stats from last time out, when finishing 16th at Redstone, he won't be too far away.
Making his fourth visit, Fredrik Jacobson has probably gained enough Augusta experience and can build on two top-20s already earned in this major. He hasn't been far off the pace this year, making his last five top-25s including third place at Riviera, and looks well suited to the course. Jacobson's brilliance on and around these infamous greens should be a significant asset.
Finally despite his current poor run, I must persevere with one of my pre-season players to follow at 300.0299/1. I remain convinced that Ryan Moore retains the potential for substantial improvement and, last autumn, he seemed on the verge of a breakthrough. Only six starts ago, he was fourth at the Phoenix Open, shooting nothing worse than 66. Perhaps Augusta, where he's made all four cuts, twice finishing top-15, will spark a revival.
The trading advice is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders on each man at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1. If one hits the first target, we'll at least quadruple our money.
Updated 2013 Stats: -31.5 units