With an eye on a tournament history showing a stack of huge-priced winners, Paul Krishnamurty's weekly column goes outsider hunting at this week's PGA Tour event in Nevada...
"David Hearn is precisely the type of mid-ranking player that throws in a handful of good weeks every year, when conditions are most suitable. That means when length off the tee isn't important and good putting is essential. He's finished top-seven here twice already and clearly loves a birdie-fest."
The annual event at Summerlin has always been one of the best for backing outsiders, and must be one of this column's best chances of the year. In addition to a vast bank of course form that clearly shows the skills and trends to focus upon, we can bet with confidence knowing that eight of the last 11 winners started the week within our triple-figure price range.
Check out Steve Rawlings' preview for a detailed guide to the task in hand but, in short, Summerlin is a birdie-fest and that always improves the chances of outsiders. The key stats to follow are putting and birdie averages.
First up, David Hearn perfectly fits the bill. The Canadian is precisely the type of mid-ranking player that throws in a handful of good weeks every year, when conditions are most suitable. That means when length off the tee isn't important and good putting is essential. He's finished top-seven here twice already and clearly loves a birdie-fest.
Granted, a best finish of 28th in his last five starts hardly inspires confidence, but four were elite events. Previously he'd been third at the Canadian Open and runner-up at the Greenbrier Classic - both low-scoring affairs.
Next a man who has already done us a favour, by hitting the first lay target at the Wyndham Championship. Tom Hoge actually fell right away that week, but had previously registered a trio of top-20s, including in Nevada at altitude in the Barracuda Championship. Since then he returned to the Web.com Tour and finished runner-up only three weeks ago.
Given that recent form, odds of 250.0249/1 and upwards seem to significantly understate his claim. Statistically he's rock-solid, ranking third and tenth in birdie and putting average respectively over the past three months. Notably, his best efforts came in those low-scoring events.
The trading advice is to stake four units combined on the pair, then place lay orders at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, with substantial extra positions still live.
Back David Hearn 2.5u @ 140.0139/1
Back Tom Hoge 1.5u @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay both players 16u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1