There are very few courses on the worldwide golfing schedule where previous course form stands up better than Harbour Town Golf Links, longstanding host venue for The Heritage. As Steve Rawlings explains in his detailed preview, in this tournament's 46 year history, nine players have won it more than once. Similar trends apply to the places - Luke Donald, for instance, has five top-threes without winning.
The first of my two picks is one of those multiple winners, Boo Weekley, was champion in 2007 and 2008. While Boo's standards have slipped from the days when he made the Ryder Cup side, he's still competitive. He's registered a couple of top-tens this season and played well on tough, ball-strikers' courses in Australia over the winter. Given the course form - he was also sixth in 2012 - odds of 180.0179/1 are simply too generous.
This exposed, links set-up has often proved a leveller between US players and the rest, producing numerous overseas champions including some rank outsiders like Jose Coceres. Two of the last three champions were Europeans, Graeme McDowell and Carl Pettersson. Our second pick is at least the equal of Pettersson and, on some stages, not far behind McDowell.
Indeed if this course were in Europe with an identical field, Joost Luiten would be a fifth of this week's 250.0249/1 odds. A short, links track with a heavy premium on tee to green accuracy sounds just like Kennemer, the Dutch track where he's won and been top-five three times. Granted, he's yet to make an impact in the States but Luiten retains bags of potential and they all get there at some point.
The trading advice is to stake 3.5 units combined on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-play. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, with a large extra position still running.
Back Boo Weekley 2u @ 180.0179/1
Back Joost Luiten 1.5u @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay each player 14u @ 16.015/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1