Our weekly outsiders' trading column is focused on the Quickens Loan National, where the race for urgently needed FedEx Cup points is expected to inspire improvement from players well down the list...
"Considering that he's only played one event since holding the final round lead and favouritism at the Greenbrier Classic...I'm surprised to see Sean O'Hair trading at 150.0149/1."
Historically, the event now known as the Quicken Loans National has hardly been fertile territory for hunting outsiders. None of the eight previous champions were anywhere near our triple-figure price range. Tiger Woods and Justin Rose won four between them, while both Anthony Kim and Nick Watney were pretty obvious.
Rose rates a strong favourite to defend his crown, but the trends may well change this year at a new venue. We have no recent strokeplay form at Robert Trent Jones GC to consider, so our study is based around recent form and the dynamics in play around this time of the season.
Considering that he's only played one event since holding the final round lead and favouritism at the Greenbrier Classic, doing this column a favour in the process, I'm surprised to see Sean O'Hair trading at 150.0149/1.
Granted, his performance on that final day was disappointing as others swept past with birdie runs, but it was encouraging to hear his confident outlook during interviews, reminding us that not so long ago he was in the world's top-20. That wasn't Sean's only good form in 2015 - he was also second at Copperhead and sixth at the Heritage.
The big sub-plot throughout August is the chase to earn a place in the ultra-lucrative FedEx Cup play-off series, by finishing in the top-125 on the points list. Expect plenty on or below that line to suddenly find a spark of improvement as urgency kicks in. From 128th place, Michael Putnam is a case in point.
A multiple winner on the Web.com Tour, last week's 11th in Canada was his best result in ages and reward for some good greens in regulation numbers over the past three months. Notably, Putnam has what often proves to be the plum tee-time, in the very first group out, when the greens are at their best.
The trading plan is to stake 3.5 units on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 14.013/1 and then 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, with substantial positions still live.
Back Sean O'Hair 2u @ 150.0149/1
Back Michael Putnam 1.5u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay both players 14u @ 14.013/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1