Some critics have labelled the unique World Super 6 format as a lottery but Paul Krishnamurty says it's the perfect event in which to trade outsiders from huge odds. Check out his trio of picks here...
"In terms of banking a profit from trading these outsiders, our task can be simplified thus. Finish the first 54 holes inside the top-24 and then win at most couple of six-hole matchplay ties. Achieve that and our pick should have traded down to single-figures."
I suspect many golf punters, used to straightforward, conventional 72-hole strokeplay will baulk at trying to fathom out this week's World Super 6 Perth event but don't be deterred! It is actually a superb event for trading and perfect for this column's purpose. So much so that we're swerving the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (invariably won by one of the favourites) and going all in with three picks here.
Before betting, do check out Steve Rawlings' comprehensive guide and mull over the format. His analysis of the scoring dynamics and trading angles is absolutely spot on and he also notes that 22 of last year's top-30 started at triple-figure odds.
Anyone from our price range that gets through to Sunday's madcap 24-man finale will be trading well below their starting price. At that stage, the favourite's chance will be no better than their cumulutive odds on winning four matches over six-hole matchplay (which amounts to little more than a toss-up). The outsider's chance no worse than their cumulutive odds of five such wins.
From a trading perspective, this is much better than the usual scenario, because we basically know what our player must achieve. In terms of banking a profit from trading these outsiders, our task can be simplified thus. Finish the first 54 holes inside the top-24 and then win at most couple of six-hole matchplay ties. Achieve that and our pick should have traded down to single-figures.
The final round will indeed be highly unpredictable and something of a lottery but for three days, this is a normal event with perfectly good indicators. Most obviously, home advantage. A vast chunk of this field has little or no experience of Australian conditions and last year's quarter-finals included no fewer than six Aussies.
Back Travis Smyth 2u @ [120.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]
First up, I love Joe Dyer's each-way pick Travis Smyth, especially at 40 points bigger on the exchange. If he can make Sunday's final-24 - well within range - then these odds will collapse, as would the place part of that each-way option. With this back-to-lay plan, Smyth would have to win no more than two Sunday matches to hit the target and secure an overall profit for the column.
The 22 year-old's brief career is very promising. He enjoyed a successful run on the US college scene, before winning and finishing second as an amateur on the Australasian Tour. Upon turning pro, Smyth turned in three straight top-20 finishes, including at both the Open and PGA.
Back Anthony Quayle 2u @ [140.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]
Here's another very likeable youngster. Quayle turned pro a year ago and has been racking up earnings with solid finishes on both the Australasian and Asian Tours, albeit without winning to date. He's finished top-20 on 11 out of his last 18 starts, including third place at Sunday's Victoria Open. He was bang in contention at halfway on his Australian Open debut.
Given that Quayle seems to be fairly consistent already, there's no reason why he can't make the weekend. A 17 year-old reached the final last year so even a chronic lack of experience may not be that much of a handicap. As with Smyth, we'll need a place in the last eight to bank some profit.
Here I'm trying a different tack by going each-way at slightly shorter than the [200.0] available on the exchange. Brown looks precisely the consistent sort to reach that last-24 - after which stage place odds of 37.5 to 1 - about winning a maximum of three tight matches - would represent amazing value. For those wanting to cash out at the same quarter-final stage as the others, a big cover on Brown's hypothetical opponent would be easy.
Roughly a decade ago, the New Zealander was enjoying a fruitful international career, contending frequently in Asia and co-sanctioned events. Now 42, he's slipped down the rankings but the last few months have seen something of a resurgence. He's only missed two of his last nine top-20s and finished an excellent sixth in the Australian Open. He's played Lake Karrinyup several times and fared respectably enough, including 15th in 2012.
Whilst this column is, as always, restricted to three bets, I wouldn't deter anyone from backing up to even ten outsiders here, following similar plans to cash out at some point on Sunday. Another one I'll be backing is Steve's each-way pick and local man Jarryd Felton.
Others to consider include last week's fifth, Ben Eccles, at around [180.0]. Canadian Austin Connelly [120.0] fared pretty well here last year, reaching the last-16 and has since showed tremendous promise at both the Open Championship and when runner-up in the KLM Open. Finally another interesting youngster is Min Woo Lee [140.0]. The 19 year-old has a promising junior reputation and is based in Perth at Royal Fremantle.