Find Me a 100 Winner: Three long-shots to back at the Shell Houston Open

Paul Krishnamurty
28 March 2017

It's high time Bernd Wiesberger brought his A-game across the Atlantic

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

In what was far from the first shock Houston Open winner, last year's champion started at the maximum odds of 999-1. Searching for a repeat, Paul Krishnamurty's recommends three picks at a mere 99-1 or better...

"If an identical field lined up in Europe, the Austrian would be a third of these odds at most...I don't regard this is as any stronger than a top Gulf event such as the Abu Dhabi and World Tour Championships - in both of which Wiesberger was fourth."

Before every event, an essential task is to study the course and evaluate which statistical indicators are most important. Sometimes a course obviously favours power off the tee or on others accuracy is the key. This week's challenge at the Shell Houston Open, however, is not so straightforward.

As an Augusta replica, set up to prepare players for next week's US Masters challenge, one would think power off the tee was all-important, given the wide fairways. Past victories for JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim reinforce that idea but that doesn't explain last year's 1000.0 winner Jim Herman, or numerous other contenders for that matter.

As always, Steve Rawlings deals with these statistical questions in his comprehensive preview. He concludes that greens in regulation is the key, and the numbers certainly bear that out. He also notes two further trends - the excellent record of Australians and correlation with results from the Phoenix Open and Wells Fargo Championship.

All are essential factors to consider and I shall add one more. Look at the unlikely players with good course records and you will find that they share one thing in common - excellent scrambling skills. For example Cameron Tringale, Bud Cauley, D.A. Points are always massive outsiders, yet have 'overperformed' in relative terms around Redstone C.C.

Tringale is one of Steve's picks and came in for very serious consideration, as did Dave Tindall's each-way selection Ryan Palmer. However in the interests of variety, let's add the following trio. In all three cases, the advice is to try a back-to-lay strategy, for which the details and lay targets are listed below.

Back Bernd Wiesberger 2u @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 12.011/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1

So far as his European Tour stats are concerned, Bernd Wiesberger fits the bill at several times the odds we ever see on that tour. Over the last 12 months he's hit an outstanding 75% of greens in regulation and tops the scrambling stats. If an identical field lined up in Europe, the Austrian would be a third of these odds at most.

I don't regard this is as any stronger than a top Gulf event such as the Abu Dhabi and World Tour Championships - Wiesberger was fourth in both. Sooner or later he's bound to transfer that form to the States, where there has already been the odd signal. He played in the final group of the 2014 PGA Championship and fared respectably in 22nd and 34th on his two cracks at the Masters.

Back Cameron Smith 2u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1
Back Cameron Smith for a Top 20 Finish 2u @ 5.69/2

Next the strongest of this week's selections - also recommended for a Top 20 Finish. Australians are always worth an extra look in this event, having produced three Redstone champions this century. The fast greens and exposure to wind strongly correlate with their triple-crown venues. Cameron Smith has looked a top prospect in those events and is a cracking price here.

Smith should love these fast greens and fared pretty well in 19th on last year's course debut. This fine prospect - who came to prominence when fourth in the 2015 US Open - seemed highly progressive last autumn and is fancied to step up on some respectable mid-division efforts given these ideal conditions. Like Tringale (who ranks seventh), Smith is a prominent 11th in the strokes gained around the green stats.

Back Vaughn Taylor 1u @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 30.029/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1

Given that Herman and Points were absolutely enormous upsets, don't be afraid to take a punt at a crazy price. Vaughn Taylor is every bit as realistic as either of those were. He even won an event last year.

Taylor's forte has always been putting and he's a former runner-up of this event, back in 2010. In a further signal that this is his sort of test, Taylor also contended for 54 holes in the 2007 Masters en route to an excellent top-ten finish. Stranger things have happened and, due to pre-event odds of 500.0499/1, we can make a substantial profit if he just shortens to the first lay target at 30.029/1.