Last year's RSM Classic was won by a 599-1 shot and Mackenzie Hughes wasn't the first outsider to thrive at Sea Island either. Paul Krishnamurty runs the rule over this year's field in search of picks at 99-1 or better...
"O'Hair is high-class at his best and tends to contend strongly at least once or twice per season. It's six years since the last of his four PGA Tour wins (still a fair return for a 35 year-old), but he has finished runner-up in an event in each of the last three seasons."
In a busy golfing week, involving tournaments spanning four continents, the highlight from a pedigree perspective is obviously the DP World Tour Championship - previewed here by Steve Rawlings. Fittingly for the Race to Dubai finale, this is one of the most reliable form events on the calendar - always producing a very high-class leaderboard and, to date, obvious champions.
Utterly terrible trends for outsiders then, but I must at least mention a few that caught the eye for Jumeirah. Considering his good form - second at the Nedbank, sixth at Valderrama - 200.0199/1 about Scott Jamieson looks too big. Plus both my each-way pick George Coetzee and Mike Norman's selection Ryan Fox are trading at 100.099/1 and 290.0289/1 respectively on the exchange. Despite those enhanced odds, though, I'd rather back them each-way as winning or trading short will be very difficult in this company.
In complete contrast, historic leaderboards at the RSM Classic are packed with outsiders, including some very unlikely winners - not least Mackenzie Hughes at 600.0599/1 last year. Whilst this column has never had a winner at Sea Island, we did go agonisingly close in 2013, when 500.0499/1 pick Briny Baird lost by a shot after trading below 1.21/5. As those instances imply, don't be afraid to take huge odds about a fancy here.
Back Sean O'Hair 2u @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 12u @ 12.011/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1
Sean O'Hair is always liable to be selected here when conditions suit. Though inconsistent, he's high-class at his best and tends to contend strongly at least once or twice per season. It's six years since the last of his four PGA Tour wins (still a fair return for a 35 year-old), but he has finished runner-up in an event in each of the last three seasons.
He wasn't in terrible form when last seen during the FedEx Cup and makes his seasonal debut at a track where his record is solid, registering four top-20 finishes in five attempts.
We're taking a chance on well-being here but, from a course form perspective, Thompson is a no-brainer at these odds. Among five visits he's finished third, tenth and 13th. This one-time US Open runner-up would also probably have been much shorter six months ago, after registering a respectable six top-20 finishes early last season.
The problem is that Thompson went on to miss the summer with injury, only returning a fortnight ago at the Shriners. While 72nd place there hardly excites, hitting 82% of greens in regulation is encouraging.
Back Tom Hoge 2u @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1
Great putting and plenty of birdies are essential to contend at Sea Island and that brings Tom Hoge into the equation. He ranks ninth for putting and seventh for birdie average amongst these over the past year and only seems to thrive in low scoring conditions.
Easily his best two recent results were in birdie-fests - fourth at the Barracuda and seventh a fortnight ago at the Shriners. Another promising clue is that seven of his ten rounds at Sea Island to date were sub-69.
There was no shortage of alternatives on the shortlist. Dave Tindall has dug out a very interesting 80/1 each-way bet on J.T. Poston and at 110.0109/1 on the exchange, he falls within our price range. At the same odds, Dave's other recent 100/1 winner Ryan Armour also came in for consideration.
First reserve is David Lingmerth at 150.0149/1 - a cracking putter who was only excluded because of uncertainty after he withdrew from the OHL. And finally I absolutely wouldn't deter anyone from sticking with last week's profitable pick Brian Gay at 200.0199/1. He's finished fourth here previously and ranks second amongst these for putting over the last three months.