Find Me a Winner: Three outsider picks across both of this week's events

299-1 about William McGirt is eyecatching given his previous at Scottsdale
299-1 about William McGirt is eyecatching given his previous at Scottsdale
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Looking to back an outsider on this week's golf? Paul Krishnamurty recommends a trio of players at well beyond 100-1 across both main events and marks your card with a few alternatives...

"Brian Stuard has finished top-nine on three of his last six starts, including when carrying our cash at the Sony. As for this event, he's finished tenth and 16th on his last two visits to Scottsdale."

Back Brian Stuard 2u @ [270.0]

Promising Thai well worth a punt at the Maybank

There was a big temptation to focus all of this week's selections on a PGA Tour event that has been good to this column over the years - for which there are literally a plethora of plausible candidates at [100.0] or more. One outsider, however, particularly stands out as good value in Malaysia.


Back Poom Saksansin 2u @ [170.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [8.0]

I must reiterate a point made several times recently, that seems particularly relevant after Haotong Li's victory at the Dubai Desert Classic. There are apparently countless promising up and coming Asian players and they all seem to be seriously under-estimated on the main tours.

Poom Saksansin may well be another. The 24 year-old Thai is a model of consistency on the Asian PGA and Asian Development Tours, winning three times and finishing no worse than 12th in his last four events. As interestingly, on a few rare starts in stronger international company, he's far from disgraced himself. Saksansin was 24th in the elite HSBC Champions, 16th in the Hong Kong Open and the same position in the European Masters - on what was only his second start on European soil.

Notably, those last two events are noted by Steve Rawlings as offering a potential correlation with this week's Saujana layout. All things considered, his case adds up to much better than odds of [170.0] in my view.


Keep short game specialists on side at the Phoenix

Despite the Waste Management Phoenix Open invariably being won by world-class players, it often proves a tremendous event for back-to-lay purposes, for two particular reasons. First there's always a batch of classy market leaders, creating much enhanced odds about some very capable types. Second, the nature of scoring at TPC Scottsdale means things change very fast on the leaderboard. Many a player has traded short only to finish way down the pack.


Back Brian Stuard 2u @ [270.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]

Although no single stat is all-important at Scottsdale, short game specialists invariably thrive - especially if they can putt well on Bermuda greens. Here we're taking [270.0] about the man ranked second in Future of Fantasy's 'Bermuda Specialists'.

The case for Brian Stuard goes deeper too. He's finished top-nine on three of his last six starts, including when carrying our cash at the Sony. As for this event, he's finished tenth and 16th on his last two visits to Scottsdale.

Back William McGirt 2u @ [300.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [30.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]

For the final pick, we're having to take a chance on William McGirt's form because he struggled on his sole 2018 start, but he did close out 2017 with a pair of top-tens. The case on course form, however, is solid. In six tries, he's never finished worse than 32nd and two-thirds of his rounds were sub-70.

Indeed at last year's renewal, McGirt gave us a great run at similar odds, sitting seventh through 54 holes before falling away on Sunday. He's also gone well at a lot of courses where short game excellence is at a premium - including on his Augusta debut last year and when winning the 2016 Memorial at Muirfield Village.

As usual for this event, several alternatives came in for consideration. Just inside our price range at [110.0] and [130.0] respectively, Shane Lowry and Ollie Schneiderjans look just the types to thrive. The former in particular is a short game master and finished sixth and 16th on both visits.

Following his sixth top-25 in eight starts, Brandon Harkins [190.0] is on my radar, while the potentially world-class Peter Uihlein is well up to defying odds of [210.0]. Finally on his first start of 2018, Ryan Moore's chance is surely better than [150.0], given six previous top-17 finishes at Scottsdale. Moore's record is further evidence that ace scramblers go well here.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2018 Profit/Loss

-18 units

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