Find Me a 100 Winner: Three cracks at a Mayakoba upset

Golfer Bronson Burgoon
Bronson Burgoon is making excellent progress
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Paul Krishnamurty previews this week's PGA Tour event and selects his best three trades available at odds of 99-1 or better...

"The single most important skill around El Camaleon is putting. Among these, Malnati top among the putting average over the last three months and year. In strokes gained putting, he was second only to Beau Hossler last season."

Back Peter Malnati 2u @ [270.0]

All three of this week's selections are on the PGA Tour event but to start, here's a few thoughts on the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Steve Rawlings explains in his comprehensive preview how the previous winners rollcall doesn't bode well for outsiders and as per usual in the Rolex Series, the class at the top of the market is formidable.

Two players at above 99-1 did come in for serious consideration, with preference for Mikko Korhonen. I'm in total agreement with Joe Dyer's thoughts in our each-way column regarding the Finn's form in South Africa. That is an angle this column has followed a few times over the years and he's definitely improved this term.

Korhonen has the perfect consistent tee to green game to thrive around Sun City and so does Thomas Aiken - available around the same [130.0] odds. Last week's tenth was his second straight top-20 and fourth good result in nine. He's been placed twice before here in the Data Dimension.

Nevertheless by comparison the Mayakoba Classic looks much more fertile territory and my shortlist was here was much longer. This will be a birdie-fest that rewards accurate iron play and putting, without penalising short-hitters. In short, wide-open.

Progressive Burgoon can contend again

Back Bronson Burgoon 2u @ [180.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [16.0]
Place order to lay 25u @ [3.0]

First [180.0] represents a really eyecatching price against a player who has enjoyed an excellent summer and finished runner-up twice in his last nine, including his penultimate start. Stretch that to 11 and he's also managed a sixth place, 11th in a FedEx play-off series and even played respectably when missing the cut on his Open Championship debut.

Burgoon made the top-25 at this El Camaleon track on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts and, having produced his best results in low-scoring events, should enjoy this challenge. He looks a progressive type.

Stefani to confirm liking for El Camaleon

Back Shawn Stefani 2u @ [220.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 25u @ [3.0]

Next I'm following Dave Tindall's each-way pick at luxury win-only odds on the exchange. Shawn Stefani has fine course form credentials - finishing runner-up in 2015 among three top-25s from four. He's also got some promising numbers on tracks where correlations can be found with El Camaleon. Steve lists several such courses in his preview, including Southwind and Waialae.

Furthermore, Stefani is playing well enough to defy these odds, including all the things one needs to thrive here. Throughout a consistent run on both PGA and Web.com tours, he's been hitting fairways and greens, while putting well and making a stack of birdies. Among this field, only Patrick Rodgers has a higher birdie average over the past three months.

Back the best putter in the field at huge odds

Back Peter Malnati 2u @ [270.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [30.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]

Here's another for whom a brief return to the Web.com seems to have worked the oracle. Following a pair of top-sixes during September at the lower level, he's hit two top-25s from three on the PGA Tour and Malnati should feel good about a course where he finished top-15 in both 2013 and 2015.

The single most important skill around El Camaleon is putting. Among these, Malnati top among the putting average over the last three months and year. In strokes gained putting, he was second only to Beau Hossler last season. That plus recent and course form credentials simply don't add up to odds anywhere near [270.0] in my view.

Finally a few alternatives. Brandon Harkins is another birdie-machine type and closed well for a top-ten last weekend. He's first reserve. El Camaleon is very much a Brian Gay [170.0] type of course and he could well bounce back to better earlier form this summer and last season. And if you don't mind overlooking recent form in favour of previous course numbers, Brian Stuard [400.0] and Oscar Fraustro [1000.0] are worth a look.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2018 Profit/Loss

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