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Find Me a 100 Winner: Follow these three outsiders in Joburg

Mikko Korhonen was runner-up on his last South African start
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Paul Krishnamurty searches for value bets and trades among the players available on Betfair at bigger odds than 99-1 for this week's event from South Africa...

"From Zimbabwe and schooled on the US college scene, he contended on the Sunshine Tour almost immediately upon turning pro and fared respectably on last week's first start back in the region."

Back Scott Vincent 2u @ [110.0]

How's this for a challenge to end the golfing year? Try and find players at 99-1 or better in a co-sanctioned minor tour event, where your price range will include hardly anyone recognisable outside the low-grade South African Sunshine Tour, with no meaningful past course form to study!

We are up for it and actually, it isn't impossible to find angles by any means. There is a very significant one in that the course is rain-sodden. That must help big-hitters and mean a stack of birdies as players attack soft greens. And while past champions were usually very obvious, numerous outsiders have made the places here so there is plenty of trading potential.


Back Scott Vincent 2u @ [110.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]

First up, I must reiterate my each-way pick in this column. Vincent's numbers don't read like an outsider at this level. Is the Asian Tour - where he was contending virtually every week during the autumn - notably inferior to this? From Zimbabwe and schooled on the US college scene, he contended on the Sunshine Tour almost immediately upon turning pro and fared respectably on last week's first start back in the region.

Perhaps this is another case of nationality bias. Zimbabwean golf has pedigree from the likes of Nick Price and Tony Johnstone but is a poor relation to it's neighbour. In his comprehensive tournament preview, Steve Rawlings notes how several emerging young South Africans broke through in this event. There's no reason why the same shouldn't apply to a Zimbabwean. I expect Vincent to impact one of the big South African events this winter.


Back Mikko Korhonen 1u each-way @ 125/1

Apologies for the repetition but I must also follow Joe Dyer with another of our each-way picks. With seven places on offer, Korhonen is a must-bet each-way at these odds. The accurate Finn is very much one to consider at this level. His two South African outings last winter resulted in finishing second and seventh - an improvement on a series of top-30s over here and reflecting steady progress between those years.

Mikko went on to confirm that runners-up spot at the Tshwane Open was no fluke by doing the same in the Lyoness Open, before a disappointing summer. He's had several weeks break since last seen in October so has hopefully turned it around.


Back Laurie Canter 1u each-way @ 175-1

Here's another outsider who seems to improve when in this region. Last winter, Canter notched a consecutive trio of top-16 finishes in the South African Open, Dimension Data and finally this event. He didn't achieve the same all season until last week in Mauritius, when he fell away from second place at halfway.

Canter was also a fairly respectable 36th in a vastly superior field at the Dunhill Links on his penultimate start, so is not in hopeless form, and he also made the top-40 at the Open Championship. He averages 311 yards off the tee over the past year, so ticks that important box too.

Regarding alternatives, check out Steve and Dan's each-way picks Anthony Michel (280.0] and Christian Bezuidenhout [180.0]. I'm impressed with Challenge Tour recruit Steven Brown's consistency and he made the shortlist at [180.0]. So too did bang-in-form Sunshine Tour regular Alex Haindl at [250.0].


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2017 Profit/Loss

-9 units

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