Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for both Euro and PGA Tour events

Brian Gay's scrambling prowess could pay dividends at Glen Abbey
Brian Gay's scrambling prowess could pay dividends at Glen Abbey

Paul Krishnamurty looks for outsider picks, with a view to banking a profit should they shorten up in-running, at both of this week's main tour events...

"Given that expected emphasis on scrambling, I'm prepared to overlook Brian Gay's five past failures at Glen Abbey. In reality, he's never arrived in any sort of form whereas this short-game master has been resurgent this season. 250.0249/1 represents big odds about someone who was third last week."

Back Brian Gay 2u @ 250.0249/1

For various reasons, studying and analysing form this week is much harder than usual. First, regardless of the specific events, predicting how players will respond immediately after a major championship is never straightforward.

That process becomes even harder when confronted with a course for which we have no recent form - as is the case at the Porsche European Open. And while that can hardly be said of Glen Abbey, regular host to the RCB Canadian Open, numerous changes to the course over the years have sewn confusion.


Lewis has the power to contend around Green Eagle

First to Germany, and the Green Eagle Course's Euro Tour debut. Very long and softened by rain throughout the week, big-hitters seem certain to enjoy a significant advantage. Normally I would expect such conditions to favour the market leaders but, despite plenty of class up top, their recent form credentials are nothing to get excited about.

Frustratingly, the players that most interested me for this column don't quite meet our odds criteria. Instead, a positive word for Lucas Bjerregaard will have to suffice and Jorge Campillo is recommended in our each-way column.


Back Tom Lewis 2u @ 190.0189/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1

Also in that each-way column, Joe Dyer is backing one of only two outsiders to make my final shortlist. Tom Lewis has been regarded as a prospect ever since a fine Open debut in 2011, swiftly followed by a maiden win in the Portugal Masters. That track favours long hitters and yields plenty of birdies - which is precisely what I expect we'll get this week.

Of course 2011 form should not be overstated now, but he's not without recent promise, finishing top-20 in both Italy and Portugal. At 190.0189/1 in a pretty ordinary event, he's worth a trade.

The other name on my shortlist was Nino Bertasio at 230.0229/1. He's an excellent putter who isn't short off the tee and caught the eye on a few occasions last term. Steve Rawlings also puts up some interesting outsiders, including the talented Zander Lombard for the each-way column and a couple of lesser known Germans in his comprehensive preview of the event.


This pair are value to carry over their good weekend form


As Steve notes in his Canadian Open preview, statistical trends from Glen Abbey are far from clear. I suspect that is largely due to the course frequently being upgraded and multiple renewals being rain-affected. This year, though, a dry, hot weekend is forecast. In my view, that means this year's emphasis will be on precise iron-play and good scrambling around smaller than average sized greens.


Back Cameron Percy 2u @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1

Considering his relatively obscure profile at this level, in-form Cameron Percy has a decent Glen Abbey record - finishing 44th, 18th and 26th on three tries. Nearly all Percy's best form has come on the Web.com Tour but, coming off eight consecutive sub-70 rounds at the John Deere and Barbasol, he could be ready to break through at the higher level.

Notably the Aussie topped last week's greens in regulation stats, hitting an outstanding 89%. A repeat would surely make him very competitive on these smaller greens.


Back Brian Gay 2u @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1

Given that expected emphasis on scrambling, I'm prepared to overlook Brian Gay's five past failures at Glen Abbey. In reality, he's never arrived in any sort of form whereas this short-game master has been resurgent this season. Quotes of 250.0249/1 represent big odds about someone who was third last week.

Sunday's effort was Brian's best result of the season but not his first by any means. Gay also registered consecutive top-sixes at the Heritage and Texas Open - earning this column a profit at the latter. Is he long enough to compete on a par-72? That is a concern but note how Jim Furyk has compensated for lack of power with a stellar short game here.

Finally, some alternatives. Former star amateur Curtis Luck is very much one to keep an eye on while still available around 170.0169/1. Anirban Lahiri has caught the eye of late and this talented Indian may be under-rated due to the market's usual nationality bias in favour of Americans and Brits. And Stewart Cink - twice a top-five finisher here and in reasonable form this term - also came in for very serious consideration.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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