Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for Australia and Mauritius

Dawie Van Der Walt has bags of winning pedigree at this level
Dawie Van Der Walt has bags of winning pedigree at this level

Paul Krishnamurty scours this week's two full-field events in search of value bets at 99-1 or better. Check out his trio of trades for Mauritius and Australia...

"Let's take a chance on a player whose record at this level confirms an ability to make a total mockery of these odds. Dawie Van Der Walt is a two-time Web.com Tour winner and also twice a winner of co-sanctioned Euro Tour events. All within the last four years."

If you love golf and can live without sleep, Christmas has come early, as this week's trio of events pretty much cover the entire 24-hour clock. The fun kicks off on Wednesday evening with the Australian PGA Championship, so let's start our betting there.


Classy youngsters look under-rated for Royal Pines

I've written a wider preview of the Aussie PGA here and was pleasantly surprised to see one of my picks available in our price range at 100.099/1 - compared to the 40/1 each-way bet advised. Given that those odds may not last I've swerved putting Kramer Hickok in this plan but I'm adamant they are massive!

Back Travis Smyth 2u @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 5.04/1

Similarly, 150.0149/1 about this highly promising player is huge. We've just seen a former Australian Amateur champion win their Open, maintaining a trend towards classy amateurs or rookie pros making a quick impact in their top events. 21 year-old Travis Smyth may well be the next.

What isn't there to like about Smyth's very short career? Promise on the US amateur scene, followed by a win and a second on this tour whilst still in the amateur ranks. He turned professional two weeks ago, finished 11th in the NSW Open and then closing with 67 to make the Open top-ten. He's precisely the type of talented youngster to contend at a big price.


Follow the South African connection in Mauritius

As Steve Rawlings explains in his tournament preview, the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open isn't the easiest to research but he's identified the main angle and backed a pair of South Africans. Looking through the 2015 result on this course there's no doubting their advantage. Not merely the winner George Coetzee but several Sunshine Tour also-rans inside the top-20. Numerous such types came in for consideration at big odds.


Back Hennie Du Plessis 2u @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 12u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 5.04/1

Rather like the bet in Australia, I'm going for a youngster in red-hot form. Du Plessis has only just turned 21 and his last two results were a win and a second place. He's a big-hitter who ranks third for birdies on the Sunshine Tour, so why shouldn't he keep the run going?

Of course we don't know how good Du Plessis is yet but the best South African players tend to become world-class, so it is always worth keeping an eye on their youngsters. I vividly recall taking huge odds about Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen at this level in their youth.


Back Dawie Van Der Walt 2u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 12u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 6.05/1

Next let's take a chance on a player whose record at this level confirms an ability to make a total mockery of these odds. Dawie Van Der Walt is a two-time Web.com Tour winner and also twice a winner of co-sanctioned Euro Tour events. All within the last four years.

Van Der Walt is being dismissed by the market because of a disappointing campaign on the Web.com. However he hasn't played since August and was 15th on his penultimate start, so is hardly gone at the game. If he returns fresh and in-form, the market will soon take note. In-form, Dawie would be a quarter of these odds.

Finally, a few alternatives that caught the eye. Putting was extremely important during that 2015 renewal so those prominent in the Sunshine Tour stats are worth considering. Ockie Strydom stands out on the stats and his form, but that is reflected by odds of 130.0129/1.

Oliver Bekker 150.0149/1 finished eighth in 2015 and is another with good putting figures, but I slightly prefer the more consistent Jake Roos around 210.0209/1, who was 13th two years ago. He's first reserve. And although his most recent numbers on the European Tour are grim, Justin Walters did manage an excellent third place out of nowhere at September's KLM Open. He's got plenty of form at this level and is very interesting at 180.0179/1.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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