This week's column focuses on the longstanding European Tour event in Holland, where Paul Krishnamurty recommends the following trading plan on two outsiders available well in excess of 100/1.
"Damien McGrane has finished top-four at Kennemer on three different occasions...At 167th on the Race to Dubai, he urgently needs some points and should be well motivated for the autumn."
With the PGA Tour taking a break this week, we've only got the one tournament to pick from and history suggests the KLM Open isn't ideal. An outsider within our triple-figured price range hasn't won this for a decade and the cream generally rises to the top on these links layouts. Nevertheless, from a very short list, two players caught the eye.
First a pick whose odds over the last fortnight perfectly illustrate how fickle golf markets over-react in either direction. We were having a laugh at B.B. last week at the 20/1 quote about Robert Dinwiddie - the ultimate Euro Tour journeyman. Myself, Steve Rawlings and Joe Dyer came to agreement that he was, indeed, the worst-priced golfer ever.
So in tipping him a week later, I won't pretend it's out of a belief that Dinwiddie is suddenly a world-beater. The point, however is a seven-fold increase in his odds, without losing the good form credentials. He ruined his chance in Russia with a bad opening round, before closing with three sub-70s to finish 28th. That after registering a trio of consecutive top-11s and he was also previously third in Austria. Not the numbers of a 150.0149/1 chance.
My other pick is a course specialist at 260.0259/1. Damien McGrane has finished top-four at Kennemer on three different occasions and, while he's endured a horrible season, eighth in the Czech Masters on his penultimate start offers a little encouragement. At 167th on the Race to Dubai, he urgently needs some points and should be well motivated for the autumn.
The trading plan is to stake four units on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either hits the first lay target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, while retaining substantial extra positions.
Back Robert Dinwiddie 2.5u @ 150.0149/1
Back Damien McGrane 1.5u @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay both players 16u @ 16.015/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
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