Paul Krishnamurty reckons the Greenbrier Classic is one of the best events for backing outsiders, and marks your card about a couple of highly capable outsiders with strong Money List incentives...
"Jonas Blixt took a long while to get going during last year's rookie season but managed to secure a play-off spot, before the Swede went on to produce some superb form during the Fall Series...Blixt's final season on the 2011 Web.com Tour notably took a very similar trajectory."
We've already seen 12 shock winners - players who began the week within our triple-figure price range - on this year's PGA Tour and there's every reason to think they will keep on coming, especially this week.
Bill Haas may have been a fairly obvious winner of last week's AT&T National, but the wider leaderboard illustrated the ever increasing number of players worth considering. Nine of the top-12 are non-winners at this level, as coincidentally were the last two winners of this week's Greenbrier Classic. Indeed further analysis of past leaderboards suggests shocks this is one of the likeliest events on the calendar to produce a shock.
There is a further reason to follow outsiders at this time of year. With a maximum of eight counting events available before the FedEx Cup play-offs bonanza, expect several players currently below the top-125 cut line to get their act together.
Sitting in 139th place in the FedEx list, Jonas Blixt catches the eye in this regard at odds of 130.0129/1. He took a long while to get going during last year's rookie season but managed to secure a play-off spot, before the Swede went on to produce some superb form during the Fall Series, winning the Frys.com Open. Blixt's final season on the 2011 Web.com Tour notably took a very similar trajectory. After a very disappointing first half of 2013, second place in the recent Nordea Masters and 11th at Colonial could point towards another good summer run.
Four places below Blixt is 143rd ranked Andres Romero, who has similarly improved recently, making consecutive top-25s, although he'll be very disappointed to have finished only 13th at Congressional after holding a substantial lead. Under the rules of this trading system, however, those early efforts would have been enough to secure a big profit by hitting both lay targets, so I see no reason to be deterred by that apparent lack of bottle. Romero has always been an erratic player, highly capable on his day, but only worth considering at big odds. He finished fourth on the Old White Course in 2011.
The trading advice is to stake four units combined on our pair, then place two lay orders on each at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1. If either hits the first target, we're guaranteed to triple our money at least.