The 2014 Race to Dubai gets off to an early start this week in South Africa, where Paul Krishnamurty recommends the following pair of outsiders for his weekly trading column...
The odds about Van Der Walt...seem particularly inexplicable. He is obviously in fair form, having won his most recent start on the Sunshine Tour...and has frequently challenged at this level."
Take out red-hot favourite Charl Schwartzel, and this week's South African Open looks wide open. Second favourite Ross Fisher, ranked 80th, is the only other member of the world's top-100 lining up. With neither man certain to dominate by any means, the best trading strategy could be to focus on the better home candidates, especially at big odds.
Thanks to ordinary campaigns on other tours, two of the most frequent South African challengers at this level are available within our triple-figure price range. In previous co-sanctioned affairs, both Tjaart Van Der Walt and Jbe Kruger have been quoted at a fraction of this week's [110.0] and [150.0] odds. Under the circumstances, both strike me as fairly obvious value.
The odds about Van Der Walt, (once a runner-up on no less a stage than the PGA Tour), seem particularly inexplicable. He is obviously in fair form, having won his most recent start on the Sunshine Tour a fortnight ago, and has frequently challenged at this level. Tjaart has finished second and fifth in the last two Africa Opens, for example, and runner-up at St Omer on the European Tour only five months ago.
Likewise, Kruger has been almost a mainstay in contention in these co-sanctioned events over recent seasons. Admittedly, this year's form has been below par but his accurate game should be well suited to this tree-lined Glendower layout, where the rough is reportedly up. In that regard at least, Kruger's game is as reliable as ever, having ranked in the top-ten for greens in regulation on three of his last four events. At odds of [150.0], it's worth taking a chance that he can return to contention on home soil.
The trading advice is to stake 3.5 units combined on the pair, then place two lay orders on each at [10.0] and [3.0]. Should either just hit the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least quadruple our initial outlay.
Updated 2013 Stats: +55 units