This week's Valero Texas Open is one of the best opportunities of the year to make big profits from backing outsiders. The last three winners begun the week within our triple-figure price range and in 2010 and 2011, almost the entire leaderboard was comprised of outsiders.
Moreover, while there is no shortage of class amongst the market leaders, this field lacks the strength in depth of most PGA Tour events. There are several non-winners, for example, trading at less than [100.0].
Indeed this is a golden opportunity for somebody to break through with their first win. One such player is Daniel Summerhays, who has been on this column's radar for some time. [120.0] chance Summerhays went into many notebooks last summer after a solid run of high finishes that culminated in a play-off defeat at the Sanderson Farms Championship. More recently he's been consistent enough without getting into contention but top-20s at the Honda and Pebble Beach bode well.
Critically regarding this event, Summerhays is a superb scrambler, ranking ninth amongst this field over the past 12 months. Those skills helped him to seventh place here last year so there's no reason why he shouldn't go well again.
In stark contrast, nine-time winner Stuart Appleby was prolific back in his heyday but it's nearly four years since he won the Greenbrier Classic. While Appleby's best golf is surely behind him, he retains the ability to pop up somewhere at huge odds and recent results are enough to warrant a bet at [240.0].
Last week's missed cut was his first of the season and a pair of top-tens in the Humana Challenge and Honda Classic represent competitive form in an event of this stature. Appleby's famed prowess in the wind, that earned no less than three straight wins in the Hawaii season-opener, should be a significant asset around this exposed San Antonio layout.
The trading plan is to stake three units in total on the pair, then place two lay orders at [12.0] and [3.0] to bank profit. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed a minimum of nine units profit, which effectively equates to a three-to-one bet with substantial extra profits available.
Updated 2014 Stats: +6 units