Find Me a 100 Winner: Two wind specialists to back at the BMW Masters

Paul Lawrie's Qatar Masters form could be a useful formline
Paul Lawrie's Qatar Masters form could be a useful formline

Fresh off a very successful week in the States, Paul Krishnamurty's weekly outsiders trading column heads to China and the BMW Masters

"The most important clue this week could be the weather forecast, with strong winds forecast for the first three days, and that thinking lies behind both selections. Notably both are former champions of the Qatar Masters, where the Doha GC layout is very exposed."

Just when this column needed a good week, an excellent one turns up! Had none of last week's three selections hit the first lay target, our hard earned profits would have disappeared and the annual balance sheet moved into the red. Happily, not just one but two of the three hit the first target, yielding 30 units profit and ensuring we'll maintain our record of returning an overall profit every year since the trading system was started. 

Moreover, it was particularly nice to make a profit in that fashion, vindicating the strategy. Neither player won or even hit the second lay target. Andres Romero, 10 under par on the first day, didn't even make the cut! Yet because the very nature of in-play golf betting is for players to shorten markedly during the hot period of their round, irrespective of the end result, it is often possible to bag a substantial profit early.

The most important clue this week could be the weather forecast, with strong winds likely for the first three days, and that thinking lies behind both selections. Notably both are former champions of the Qatar Masters, where the Doha GC layout is very exposed to the famous afternoon winds.

First, Chris Wood at 100.099/1. Wood has been known as a wind specialist ever since making the places on his first two Open attempts and, following a series of flops in contention, showed he's moving forward with that victory in Qatar. He's in fair form, finishing seventh on his penultimate start at the Dunhill Links and, significantly, has great form in Asia. Wood's last four starts in Asia all yielded, with nothing worse than tenth and a win in the Thailand Open.

These conditions could plausibly spark a revival from Paul Lawrie, a man famous for his bad weather skills. This hasn't been a great year by Paul's standards, but having ranked third for greens in regulation in two of his last three starts, his long game is clearly in decent shape. That should serve him well over the first couple of days at least here and his odds could well tumble from 160.0159/1 as others less suited to conditions fall away.

The trading plan is to stake four units in total on the pair, then place lay orders at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1. Should either hit the first target, we'll be guaranteed a minimum of 11 units profit.

Recommended Bets
Back Chris Wood 2.5u @ 100.099/1
Back Paul Lawrie 1.5u @ 160.0159/1

Place orders to lay both players 15u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: +35.5 units

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