Paul Krishnamurty's weekly outsider trading column takes in the Qatar Masters, where his plan is to learn the lessons from past renewals and bank on the biggest hitters making hay...
"Gonzalez is exactly the sort of capable outsider who contends a handful of times each year, always on courses that reward his power game."
A brief study of past Qatar Masters results clearly indicates the top statistical indicator to follow - driving distance. As Steve Rawlings explains in greater detail, generous fairways and a lack of penal rough always offer an advantage to big-hitters around this layout. Occasionally a medium-hitter bucks the trend but, like Thomas Bjorn in 2012, they tend to be world-class. Alternatively there are numerous massive hitters with course records to die for, none more so than Steve's outright pick Alvaro Quiros.
So far as our triple-figure price range is concerned, I'm going with the following pair of bombers. First, Ricardo Gonzalez is my each-way selection and the Argentinian is well worth a trade at 160.0159/1. His course record alone - top-20 in eight of the last 11 renewals, including four top-tens, points strongly towards a bet and recent form is fine. Gonzalez is exactly the sort of capable outsider who contends a handful of times each year, always on courses that reward his power game.
Next despite the absence of recent form, I'm following Dan Geraghty in on the hugely promising Brooks Koepka at 180.0179/1. As I always say with youngsters, don't expect too much consistency and be prepared to persevere during poor spells. This is a player who was third on the PGA Tour only five starts ago and frequently on the fringe of contention in Europe after flying through the Challenge Tour. The longest driver in this field, Koepka looks to be of the same calibre to Martin Kaymer and Edoardo Molinari, who both became multiple winners soon after Challenge Tour domination.
The trading plan is to stake three units combined on the pair, then place two lay orders on each at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 with a view towards banking a profit. If either man hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed at least 12 units profit.
Back Ricardo Gonzalez 1.5u @ 160.0159/1
Back Brooks Koepka 1.5u @ 180.0179/1
Place order on each player to lay 15u @ 10.09/1
Place order on each player to lay 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2014 Stats: -8 units