Find Me a 100 Winner: Three proven winners to defy the odds and formbook

Jonas Blixt remains a top European prospect
Jonas Blixt remains a top European prospect

Paul Krishnamurty recommends three rank outsiders for the Phoenix Open, with a trading plan to bank profit should any of them get into contention...

"A few months ago the world was rightly hailing this 29 year-old Swede as a rising star after he contended in fourth place at his first US major. This after winning twice during his first two PGA Tour campaigns. Both came in low-scoring contests just like this week's test."


Golf markets are some of the most fickle in betting and it never ceases to amaze me how proven winners are so quickly forgotten. Most players compete in around 30 events per year, with only the very best able to consistently maintain a high standard throughout. The rest will inevitably go through spells where they struggle to make cuts or top-20s, yet still manage to save their best for a handful of events.  

It can make sense, therefore, to remember a player's long-term pedigree during the bad runs, with a view to taking vastly bigger odds than usual in the good week, which invariably arrives sooner or later. Take the following three picks, all of whom have won on the PGA Tour in the past two seasons and are often available at vastly less than this week's enormous odds.

First, Brian Gay won his fourth PGA title in six years only 13 months ago and has a solid recent record in the Phoenix Open, making the top-25 in five of the last seven renewals, yet is available at a whopping 230.0229/1. Why? Presumably because of one missed cut in a pro-am last time out. Previously his form was ordinary but fair, with a fourth place only five starts ago at the McGladrey Classic. Win or lose, his odds are too generous.

Next an even more extreme case in Jonas Blixt at 250.0249/1. A few months ago the world was rightly hailing this 29 year-old Swede as a rising star after he contended in fourth place at his first US major. This after winning twice during his first two PGA Tour campaigns. Both came in low-scoring contests just like this week's test. Whilst his three 2014 efforts to date were disappointing, it is only five starts since he was 12th in the elite DP World Tour Championship.

Finally another forgotten name at the same 250.0249/1. Kyle Stanley was similarly flavour of the month after bombing his way to this title two years ago and, while he has undoubtably gone off the boil, remains liable to bounce back somewhere. 2013 was disappointing but he did produce a short hot spell out of nowhere during the spring. At these odds, it's worth chancing that the return to his happiest hunting ground has an inspirational effect.

The trading advice is to stake 4.5 units in total, then place orders to lay each player at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1. If any of them hits the first lay target, we'll be guaranteed at make at least 10.5 units profit.


Recommended Bets

Back Brian Gay 1.5u @ 230.0229/1
Back Kyle Stanley 1.5u @ 250.0249/1
Back Jonas Blixt 1.5u @ 250.0249/1

Place order to lay each player 15u @ 16.015/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2014 Stats: -11 units


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