Although the last couple of winners at Summerlin have been more predictable than the historical norm, this annual birdie-fest remains arguably the likeliest event on the PGA Tour calendar to produce a shock winner. Every winner between 2004 and 2010 met our triple-figure price criteria, including completely unfathomable types such as Andre Stolz, Wes Short Jr and Marc Turnesa.
The highest winning total since the event became a four-, rather than five-round, affair was a mere -18 so it's pretty clear what to look for. We want a birdie-machine type with a hot putter. Step forward the following three picks.
First up, I'm totally bemused as to why Rory Sabbatini can be backed at a massive 140.0139/1 and can only assume it is the result of a bad show last week in the Frys.com Open. Previously Rory had made seven top-20s from nine starts, often in better company than this. Moreover, he has plenty of Summerlin previous, registering three consecutive top-tens back at the start of this century, including finishing runner-up in 2001. The fact Sabbatini has won six-times on the PGA Tour is a further reason to follow him at huge odds on courses that suit.
Next at 150.0149/1, Jason Bohn scores well in terms of both statistical profile and past course form. Bohn tops both the putting and birdie average stats over the past three months and can boast a runners-up spot as recently as four starts ago. He clearly enjoys this test, finishing eighth last year and making three top-25s form four attempts.
Likewise Andres Romero was runner-up only three starts ago in another Nevada event, the Reno-Tahoe Open, and clearly likes this state. He was also third the previous year in that event and has fared pretty well at Summerlin, registering a best finish of seventh and nothing worse than 36th in three visits. A wide-open birdie fest is perfect for the attacking instincts of this 160.0159/1 chance.
The trading advice is to stake six units in total on our trio, then place orders to lay each player at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1 to bank a profit. Should any of them hit the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least triple our initial outlay.
Back Rory Sabbatini 2u @ 140.0139/1
Back Jason Bohn 2u @ 150.0149/1
Back Andres Romero 2u @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay each player 18u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2013 Stats: +5.5 units