The tried and tested betting formula for this week's PGA Tour pro-am is simple - back an outsider known for making stacks of birdies. Paul Krishnamurty recommends three such characters...
"It makes good sense to start with the player who boasts both the best birdie conversion ratio and putting average over the past six months amongst this field. Jason Bohn...clearly enjoys this type of golf."
If there is one event on the entire calendar where it makes sense to be backing big-priced outsiders, this week's Humana Challenge is it. The last six winners all begun the week in triple figures, along with numerous others that traded short in-running. Even if the winners have been hard to find, the credentials to look for are blindingly obvious. This is a pure birdie-fest, with a winning the score well below -20 guaranteed, so a hot putter and high birdie conversion ratio are essential. Lets try the following trio.
It makes good sense to start with the player who boasts both the best birdie conversion ratio and putting average over the past six months amongst this field. Jason Bohn did this column a favour when finishing second at the Disney birdie-fest and clearly enjoys this type of golf. Considering the fact he repeated that good form with third place on his final 2013 start, odds of 140.0139/1 seem far too generous.
Next, a promising graduate from the Web.com Tour, Chesson Hadley at odds of 310.0309/1. Winner of the Tour Championship on that lower circuit in September, Hadley made an instant impression at the highest level by getting right into contention when fifth at the Shriners Open. That is the only out and out birdie-fest he's played so far on the PGA Tour, so it may be worth following him in this sort of event.
Finally, two-time PGA Tour winner Will Mackenzie is very interesting at 350.0349/1. Mackenzie lost his card for a while but having fought his way back via last season's Web.com Tour, he has started the new PGA Tour season looking like he could be back to stay. In five events so far, he's registered three top-15s, notably ranking second for birdie conversion behind hotpot Jimmy Walker over the past three months. This type of player, that has proven he has the ability to win events, is always capable of bouncing back somewhere.
The trading plan is to stake four units in total, then place orders to lay all three players at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 to bank profit. If any of the trio hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least triple the initial outlay.
Back Jason Bohn 2u @ 140.0139/1
Back Chesson Hadley 1u @ 310.0309/1
Back Will Mackenzie 1u @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay each player 12u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1
2014 Stats: -4 units