One advantage of using Betfair's exchange for golf betting is that you can bank a profit long before your selection has to worry about passing the finishing line. In his weekly outsiders' trading column, Paul Krishnamurty makes the case for a player whose style is perfectly suited for this form of trading...
"Jamie Donaldson traded down to single figures following great starts on his last two appearances in Europe, and it would be no surprise were the Welshman to pop up on this leaderboard again."
Backing outsiders in WGC events tends to be a pretty fruitless endeavour and past results at Sheshan GC, home to the WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy, also suggest this is a not a week to be too ambitious with our trading plan. In fact, considering five of the last six champions were among the market leaders and the other (Francesco Molinari) a plausible outsider, making a strong case for anyone within our triple-figure priced range is far from straightforward.
However, while the chances are the eventual winner will be top-class, that doesn't mean outsiders can't at least trade shorter in-running. My sole selection is precisely the type to do that, even if he tends to be totally unreliable when in contention. Jamie Donaldson traded down to single figures following great starts on his last two appearances in Europe, and it would be no surprise were the Welshman to pop up on this leaderboard again.
Though making his course debut, Donaldson appears to tick many of the right boxes. The last three winners of this title were European and he is top-notch in the most important historical stats around this course - greens in regulation and scrambling. Those recent starts in Scotland and Portugal represent fair form and last week's 34th wasn't so bad given an opening 79 in the worst of conditions.
The trading plan is to stake just two units on Donaldson, then place an order to lay eight units should he shorten to 20.019/1 at any stage, then another at 3.02/1 to bank a more substantial profit. Just by hitting the first target, we'll quadruple the initial outlay.
Updated 2013 Stats: +31.5 units