Paul Krishnamurty continues his weekly search for big value outsiders, at a tournament which has seen more than it's share of shock results in recent years
"In 131st and 132nd place respectively, both are in money list trouble but within range of the top-125 with a good week. Interestingly, both saved their best performances of 2011 for a very similar Fall Series scenario, finishing second and fifth respectively at Disney."
Having built last week's opening Fall Series event up to be the first of several golden opportunities to back outsiders, it was slightly embarrassing to see the favourite lead from start to finish.
That should not, however, be a deterrent from a tried and trusted strategy. For various reasons, these end of season affairs are ripe for producing shocks, as illustrated by the history of this week's Frys.com Open. All three winners between 2008 and 2010 - Rocco Mediate, Troy Matteson and Cameron Beckman - were available at triple-figure odds pre-tournament.
The names of Mediate and Beckman offer a big clue towards the sort of player to look for, especially the former as his win came at this CordeValle venue. Experienced, proven winners, motivated for a late-season burst by a poor position on the money list. A description that could almost perfectly be applied to this week's two selections, Justin Leonard and Tim Herron.
In 131st and 132nd place respectively, both are in money list trouble but within range of the top-125 with a good week. Interestingly, both saved their best performances of 2011 for a very similar Fall Series scenario, finishing second and fifth respectively at Disney. In another common formline, both made the top-25 at CordeValle in 2010.
Of course, the fact Leonard hasn't won since 2008, nor Herron since 2006, is a concern, but both have served recent notice of refusing to relinquish their playing privileges without a fight. Herron produced his best performance of the season last week to finish tenth at Summerlin, despite a poor final round. Leonard finished mid-division, but had previously been fifth at Reno and made the Wyndham top-20.
The trading plan is to stake 3.5 units in total, then place two lay orders on each player at [12.0] and [3.0], ensuring at least seven units profit if one target is matched.
Place order to lay both players 10u @ [12.0]
Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]
Updated 2012 stats: +38 units