The world's best are in attendance for the start of the European Tour's Desert Swing, but Paul Krishnamurty reckons English youngster Eddie Pepperell can give Rory, Rose et al a run for their money...
"There's no reason why Pepperell shouldn't go well out here. He hits plenty of greens in regulation...and makes a stack of birdies."
While it is always easy to spot a future star, identified by numerous judges, the challenge is timing your bets to coincide with their inevitable breakthrough. Some weeks, they seem over-hyped and under-priced, in others forgotten. A good punting plan is to wait for the latter scenario.
So while it was hard to get excited about sub 40.039/1 odds after Eddie Pepperell registered a quartet of top-five finishes during August and September, he's definitely worth following at four times the price now. This column got on board at the right time in last May's Nordea Masters and it seemed unlikely he'd trade within our outsiders range again.
The main reason for this week's bigger odds, of course, is the quality at the top of the market, with Rory, Rose, Stenson, Fowler and Kaymer all trading below 20.019/1. Given that plausible outsiders have won two of the last three renewals, with plenty more matched at much shorter odds in-running, there is no reason to fear their presence, beside the fact it may be difficult to get matched at very short prices if the big-guns are around.
That won't be a problem for our Pepperell trade, as we're setting the lay target very early at 25.024/1. Although his results slipped back from their late-summer peak, the 23-year-old remained consistent, finishing top-30 in three straight Race to Dubai final series events, including a top-ten in a field of similar quality at the Turkish Airlines Open.
Although desert form is thin on the ground at this early stage of his career, there's no reason why Pepperell shouldn't go well out here. He hits plenty of greens in regulation - over 70% in all of his last eight 2014 events - and makes a stack of birdies. Moreover, high-quality youngsters settle in quickly here. This was the scene of Martin Kaymer's first Euro Tour victory.
The trading plan is to stake three units on Pepperell at 160.0159/1, then place a couple of lay orders at 25.024/1 and 3.02/1 with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If he hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least quadruple our money, while leaving a substantial position still running.
Back Eddie Pepperell 3u @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 12u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1