While the Nedbank Challenge field has been extended from 12 to 30, there are still only a limited number of rock-solid candidates or even in-form players, meaning it wouldn't take that much for an outsider to develop a strong leaderboard position and therefore shorten up considerably in the betting. I'll be surprised, for instance, were Morten Orum Madsen to win an event of this magnitude but given his excellent recent form, there's no reason why he shouldn't register a high finish.
Madsen is clearly a rising star on the European Tour and it was hard not to like the way he won his breakthrough event a fortnight ago at the similarly prestigious South African Open. While older heads like Hennie Otto were losing the plot, the 25-year old Dane played a textbook back-nine to win with something to spare. Further encouragement can be taken from the fact that, rather than falling back the next week as so many first-timers do, Madsen followed up with three good rounds for a top-20 at Leopard Creek.
In truth, with the likes of course specialists Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer in the field, it is asking a lot for Madsen to win on his Sun City debut, especially given this layout's reputation for rewarding previous experience. With that in mind, I'm setting a less ambitious lay target than usual at [25.0] - the sort of odds he could hit just by reaching the top-three during the first couple of rounds. Just hitting that target would ensure we quadruple the initial outlay, with further substantial profits to come if he goes on to hit the secondary lay target at [3.0].