Paul Krishnamurty marks your card with a couple of huge-priced trades on this week's prestigious PGA Tour event...
"Casey looked on the way back last season when winning the Irish and his long game has been excellent for months, regularly hitting over 70% of greens in regulation - a reliable statistical indicator of good form."
My shortlist of plausible outsiders for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational was much longer than usual, although that enthusiasm is tempered by the history of this prestigious event, which is littered with world-class winners. In the last decade, only Rod Pampling and Martin Laird met our triple-figure criteria with multiple major champions winning six of the last seven. With that in mind, I'm keeping stakes low but should at least mention the claims of the reluctantly discarded picks - Laird, Freddy Jacobson and Russell Knox.
Paul Casey may not be a major champion, but he does have the world-class pedigree that befits most Bay Hill champions. While it is obviously unlikely that Paul will ever hit the heights he did five years ago when reaching third place in the world rankings, it is not a forlorn hope that he will win again at the highest level. Casey looked on the way back last season when winning the Irish Open and his long game has been excellent for months, regularly hitting over 70% of greens in regulation - a reliable statistical indicator of good form. Prior to missing last week's cut, he'd been top-12 in top company at the Honda and Dubai Desert Classic.
No such recent form arguments can be made for my second pick, but at enormous odds of 410.0409/1 it's worth taking a chance that Ken Duke has one of his rare good weeks. After all, he won on the PGA Tour only eight months ago and has excellent course form with two top-eights from four previous tries. Keeping the ball in play at Bay Hill will get you moving up the leaderboard and Duke is one of the most accurate drivers around.
The trading advice is to stake three units combined on the pair, then place two lay orders on both at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 to bank a minimum 12 unit profit if either hits the first target. We are, in effect, having a four to one bet that one of them hits the target, whilst leaving plenty of potential for extra profits.
Back Paul Casey 2u @ 150.0149/1
Back Ken Duke 1u @ 410.0409/1
Place order to lay both players 15u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2014 Stats: +9 units