Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 July 2008 / 1

A few months back we set golf punter and betting.betfair.com columnist Paul Krishnamurty the weekly challenge of finding a winner at odds of 99-1 or bigger. He's come very close but not nailed it yet, so who are his four Open golf bets at three figures this week?

It's four years since pre-tournament [600.0] chance Todd Hamilton became the last shock winner of the Open Championship, and if the last result at Birkdale is anything to go by this could well be the venue to produce another upset. The winner in 1998, Mark O'Meara, could hardly be described as a rank outsider as he'd already won the Masters that year but he was by no means obvious. More to the point, his play-off victim Brian Watts would have been a pre-tournament [1000.0] chance, along with others in the top-five such as Raymond Russell and a 17-year-old Justin Rose.

None of those around that sort of price really took the eye, but I have found four between [100.0] and [250.0] who look well worth a trade in this 'Tiger-free' field.

For me, the pick of the lot is Nick O'Hern, available around [220.0]. I can hear the complaints already from seasoned O'Hern-watchers, that the Aussie left-hander is unbackable in a major when he can't even get over the line in a standard Tour event. Though I couldn't deny he is serial bottler, who is amazingly yet to win outside his native Australia, I do reckon he has the type of game to thrive on really tough courses. I've had a hunch for some time that he would spring a shock, (or lose his bottle when on the verge), in a major.

Reports suggest that, after a wet summer, the rough is penal at Birkdale. This is a tough course anyway, one which demands accuracy to avoid hazards, and to enable a controlled approach shot to small greens. Straight driving and hitting most greens in regulation will be the key, along with world-class scrambling when missing the greens. The wind is usually a factor here, and if i its strong it will be decisive in eliminating most players.

In other words, this is a course tailor-made for O'Hern, one of the most consistently accurate players of recent years. He finished third in his last event, and has made the top-20 on four of his last six starts in the States, and looks booked to hit that target again in these conditions. And if the wind does blow, O'Hern should have no problems as he hails from Perth, home to the infamous afternoon wind known as the 'Fremantle Doctor'. Given his reputation though, it's safe to say that I will be laying off if he's leading down the 72nd hole.

Another player certain to love the emphasis on accuracy is [230.0] chance Scott Verplank. One of the few Americans who genuinely relishes playing in this championship, Verplank has steadily improved as a links golfer over the years, making his last four cuts with a best of seventh in 2004. Past Birkdale leaderboards are full of steady, straight-hitting Americans with very similar profiles to Verplank, and his recent US form suggests it will be more of the same this week.

It never ceases to amaze me how the market over-reacts in golf from week to week, on little more basis than one good or bad tournament. I doubt there's a better example in this year's Open than the [150.0] quote for Soren Hansen. Going into Loch Lomond last week, Hansen was amongst the favourites on the basis of a very consistent recent run of form. At that stage, he'd already figured on my radar for Birkdale at around [80.0] but because I didn't fancy his chances much in Scotland I felt it better to wait and hope for a drift. Good job I did, because one missed cut later and he's out to a whopping [150.0].

As Hansen had never produced his best golf at Loch Lomond previously, there's little sense in reading too much into that missed cut. I'd rather focus on his previous pair of top-fives, and the wider form he's shown over the past year. There's plenty to suggest this excellent ball-striker will be suited to links golf too. Six years ago when a lesser player than today, Hansen made the top-10 in the Muirfield Open. He was in contention for all four days, and may have been a little unlucky to have encountered the worst weather conditions.

Stephen Ames must rank as one of the best players yet to win a major, and it's high time he had a good Open. Then a native of Trinidad and Tobago, virtually anonymous outside the European Tour, Ames showed much promise when making the top-five at Royal Troon in 1997. In the eleven years that have passed, he's switched nationality to Canadian and become a PGA Tour mainstay, regularly challenging and winning.

As one of the world's best wind players, it seems surprising he's never brought his A-game to an Open since. There's no doubt however, that Ames is capable of winning a Major, a point emphasised when he thrashed an elite field in the '5th Major' at Sawgrass. Recent form is excellent too, with no missed cuts since January and a pair of recent top-5 finishes.

STEPHEN AMES @ 130
SOREN HANSEN @ 140
NICK O'HERN @ 210
SCOTT VERPLANK @ 230

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. steve | 05 December 2008

   Rory Sabbatini 100/1 for 2009 British Open
   Job Done for you Paul

:

:

:

?

: