The Betfair markets aren't showing enough respect to plenty of in-form outsiders in the FedEx Cup, says Paul Krishnamurty, who suggests backing a trio at enormous odds in Boston this week
"Good recent form is not to be sniffed at, yet that's precisely what the market is doing with regards this week's three picks."
Whilst acknowledging the benefit of hindsight following a profitable week at The Barclays, these opening FedEx Cup play-off events really are ideal for trading big-priced players.
For starters, the fields are shorter than usual, with only 100 left for this week's Deutsche Bank Championship, yet because of the class at the head of the market, there is no shortage of quality amongst our triple-figure range. Furthermore, many are out of form, carrying injuries or coasting after earning their FedEx Cup points during the earlier part of the season. At other times, a fortnight off may have been in order but these prizes are too big to ignore.
Under such circumstances, good recent form is not to be sniffed at, yet that's precisely what the market is doing with regards this week's three picks. Perhaps that's because they aren't household names, but all three have done enough this season to warrant respect.
It is only a month since Scott Piercy won his second PGA Tour title at the Canadian Open, but a couple of disappointing results in big events later and he's back out to 220.0219/1. That win hardly came out of nowhere as Piercy had finished third in his previous event, and followed up with a respectable top-20 in the elite WGC-Bridgestone. Indeed, Piercy has even been mentioned as an outside candidate for a Ryder Cup wild-card, towards which a good performance this week will do no harm.
Brian Harman held an outside chance on Sunday at The Barclays before settling for fifth, his best result of a promising rookie season. That was Harman's fifth top-25 in his last seven starts, having earlier caught the eye with top-15s at Bay Hill and the Honda Classic. Given that this 340.0339/1 chance's putter is hot right now, which will be a considerable asset on greens measuring 11.5 on the stimp-meter, there's no reason why he can't keep his run going.
William McGirt was another on the fringes of Sunday's action, which saw him register a third top-ten in five events. Though not a rookie, McGirt is very much in the same mould as Harman - a likely first time winner, for whom one more good result over the next fortnight would mean a place in the Tour Championship and a chance to win untold FedEx Cup riches. Odds of 330.0329/1 offer a low-risk, high-reward trading strategy.
The trading plan is to stake 3.5 units in total on our trio, then place lay orders on each at 20.019/1 and 3.02/1. Hitting just one target will almost triple our initial stake and as we saw last week, it is perfectly possible that more than one player hits the target.
Place order to lay each player 10u @ 20.019/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2012 stats: +52 units