Find Me a 100 Winner: Trust these outsiders to make a stack of birdies in Portugal

Gary Stal's rookie season has produced a barrage of red numbers
Gary Stal's rookie season has produced a barrage of red numbers

The European Tour produced a 999/1 winner on Sunday and Paul Krishnamurty believes this week's Portugal Masters is similarly ripe for an upset. Read his regular trading system here...

"In this rookie season, Stal ranks an impressive 13th amongst this field for birdie average, which is always the key to victory at Oceanico Victoria."


In the wake of yet another enormously priced shock winner, it must be worth emphasising the fickle nature of betting on golf and sense in backing outsiders, especially the European Tour. Granted, Oliver Wilson's 1000.0 odds were a legitimate reflection of his total lack of recent form, but this is a player who had been runner-up nine times and played in a Ryder Cup.

We see time and again how capable players get completely forgotten after a bad run. Another classic recent example was five-time winner Ben Crane's wire-to-wire PGA Tour victory at odds of 280.0279/1 in the St Jude Classic.

There's a whole host of such characters amongst the outsiders for this week's Portugal Masters, some of whom are mentioned in Steve Rawlings' more detailed preview of the event, such as Alvaro Quiros and Gregory Havret.

It's very hard to question Steve's logic in choosing to take on the favourites here. With all due respect to the likes of Shane Lowry, Bernd Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood, they have just five career wins between them.

For the trading purposes of this column, I like the following pair. First, I've mentioned Gary Stal before as an excellent prospect and this week's test could offer the 22 year-old Frenchman one of his best chances to break through. Youngsters have done well here before, with Tom Lewis notably winning two years ago. In this rookie season, Stal ranks an impressive 13th amongst this field for birdie average, which is always the key to victory at Oceanico Victoria.

Secondly, Scott Jamieson is the perfect example of a decent player who lacks consistency and is therefore invariably under-estimated by the market. He's finished top-13 in the last two renewals of this event and can also boast good numbers in the two Gulf events in which Steve Rawlings shrewdly notes a form correlation. Scott's 210.0209/1 odds reflect three straight missed cuts, but he's equally finished top-10 in a third of his last nine events.

The trading plan is to stake 3.5 units in total on the pair, then place a couple of lay orders on each at 16.015/1 and 3.02/1 with a view to banking a profit should either shorten up sufficiently in-running. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least quadruple our money while leaving plenty of potential for extra profits open.


Recommended Bets

Back Gary Stal 2u @ 190.0189/1 
Back Scott Jamieson 1.5u @ 210.0209/1

Place order to lay both players 14u @ 16.015/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1


2014 Profit/Loss

+10.5 units

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