When Glen Abbey last hosted the Canadian Open in 2008 and 2009, damp, receptive greens turned a championship course into a target golf birdie fest. With dry, firm and fast conditions forecast this year, expect a much sterner test. The name of the game will be less about shooting at pins than keeping the ball in-play and scrambling well.
Even in those previous renewals, the key stats were driving accuracy and scrambling because the greens are small. This time I would add experience, which all three selections have in abundance.
First up, Mark Wilson at 220.0219/1. An old favourite of this column, this five-time winner always seems to be under-rated, and was around these odds before three of those wins. Wilson made the top-25 in both recent Glen Abbey renewals, and scores very well in the key stats, ranking sixth and eighth for driving accuracy and scrambling respectively.
Next at odds of 380.0379/1, a nine-time PGA Tour winner right in the thick of the FedEx Cup qualification battle. Stuart Appleby is currently 129th, four places off the cut, and strikes me as exactly the former class act to find another gear. A fine scrambler and exponent of firm and fast courses in his homeland, Appleby is far classier version of 2009 Glen Abbey winner Nathan Green. On the form front, six of his last eight rounds were sub-70.
Finally, Jeff Maggert is hugely overpriced at 600.0599/1. Throughout his career, Maggert always saved his best for firm, fast courses, usually in the US Open. Granted most of his weekly numbers are poor, but every so often this one-time majors specialist pops up bang in contention. In his last six starts, Maggert has finished second in no less than the 'fifth major' at Sawgrass and ninth at another scramblers' venue River Highlands.
The trading plan is to stake three units in total, then place orders on each at 20.019/1 and 3.02/1. By hitting the first target, we'd be guaranteed at least seven units profit.
Back Mark Wilson 1.5u @ 220.0219/1
Back Stuart Appleby 1u @ 380.0379/1
Back Jeff Maggert 0.5u @ 600.0599/1
Place order to lay each player 10u @ 20.019/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1
Updated 2013 Stats: +24.5 units