Find Me a 100 Winner: Back this trio to progress at the World Match Play

Jamie Donaldson proved his matchplay mettle at the Ryder Cup
Jamie Donaldson proved his matchplay mettle at the Ryder Cup

In recent years, the World Matchplay has proved one of the most productive events of the season for Paul Krishnamurty's outsiders trading column. Read his three-man plan for Harding Park here...

"To reach the last-16, Donaldson needs to get past the perennially unreliable Sergio Garcia and European matchplay novices Bernd Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood."

Illustrating the up and down nature of trading, ever since this column bagged 120.0119/1 winner Andrew Dodt, results have been dire and unbelievably frustrating.

Take the last month. First we backed Troy Merritt at the Houston Open at 500.0499/1 to no avail. In his next event, he traded well below our lay targets in finishing third at the Heritage. In that event, we backed Boo Weekley at 180.0179/1 and he missed the cut. The following week, he finishes third!

There couldn't be a better time for my favourite tournament of the year, at least so far as trading is concerned. The great thing about the WGC Cadillac Match Play is it's pre-set draw, meaning we know pretty much exactly what our selections need to do, how many matches they need to win.

That was the logic in past renewals where we've turned a profit. Ernie Els, for instance, was woefully out of form last year and didn't really improve much during the tournament, yet thanks to an easy draw and one tremendous upset in the quarter-finals, the Big Easy made the semis and traded below our second 3.02/1 lay target.

Given the new format, our picks will need to win their four-man group, then a last-16 match, to get at least very close to our first target of 10.09/1. I reckon the following trio are good enough, and well drawn enough, to make that a perfectly realistic target. I'm leaving the top quarter alone, as the favourites are strong and outsiders unappealing.

In the second section, George Coetzee is enormous at 210.0209/1. The big-hitting South African reached the last-16 12 months ago, claiming the notable scalp of Patrick Reed. Though he'd lost in the two previous first rounds, Coetzee performed with credit against Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy.

Most interestingly, he reached the semis of last autumn's Volvo World Matchplay, showing further evidence that he enjoys the nuanced challenge of matchplay. Coetzee is also in excellent form, finishing 1/3/3 on his last three starts. Regarding the two favourites in his group, Jim Furyk has a poor tournament record while Kaymer is out of form right now.

Brendon Todd lacks top-level matchplay experience, but his excellent short game skills should be an advantage in this format. In his group, Henrik Stenson has lost five of his last six matches in this event, Bill Haas three from four, while John Senden is out of form. Considering Todd was fourth at the Heritage on his latest start, odds of 160.0159/1 are enormous from such a draw.

At the same 160.0159/1 odds in a tough bottom section that includes Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, Jamie Donaldson catches the eye. The Welshman isn't doing a lot right now and lost both previous matches in this but, again, his group is very winnable.

To reach the last-16, Donaldson needs to get past the perennially unreliable Sergio Garcia and European matchplay novices Bernd Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood. Remember, Donaldson was outstanding in head-to-head matchplay at the Ryder Cup.

The trading plan is to stake 5.5 units in total on our trio, then place in-play lay orders on each at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1. If any of them hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, with substantial extra positions still running.

Recommended Bets

Back Brendon Todd 2u @ 160.0159/1
Back Jamie Donaldson 2u @ 160.0159/1
Back George Coetzee 1.5u @ 210.0209/1

Place order to lay each player 22u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1

Related Articles:

WGC Cadillac Match Play Tips: One player to back from each quarter
Red-Hot Rose can go in again, says The Punter

2015 Profit/Loss:

+15.5 units

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