With low-scoring on the cards at this week's European Open, Paul Krishnamurty recommends a couple of little-known birdie-machine types who appear to be rising to the challenge of the scramble for Race to Dubai points...
"This week's selections...have already shown signs of rising to the challenge. In 136th and 114th place respectively...both Florian Fritsch and Joakim Lagergren need to sustain it."
The main golf news this week concerns the FedEx Cup finale but there is also a money list battle going on in Europe, pivotal for much lesser-known characters, way down the golf rankings. Rather than chasing a $10M bonus prize, the European Tour rank and file are either battling to save their card, or to earn a place in the similarly lucrative Race to Dubai finale.
The extra urgency and incentive always works wonders for some and, of the four players recommended to follow over this period, Rikard Karlberg won last week's Italian Open after Nicolas Colsaerts held the first round lead.
Neither of this week's selections were among that initial quartet, but have already shown signs of rising to the challenge. In 136th and 114th place respectively - outside the critical top-110 - both Florian Fritsch and Joakim Lagergren need to sustain it.
Dan Geraghty has a fantastic record of picking outsiders, and he makes an excellent, detailed case for Fritsch in our each-way column. Given much improved numbers - top-30 in four of his last five, including seventh at Crans - plus the fact that German players will presumably enjoy an advantage in terms of course knowledge, he looks an obvious value trade at 110.0109/1.
The course also looks particularly promising for his skills-set. As Steve Rawlings explains in his must-read preview, the course looks set to yield plenty of birdies. Nobody has a better birdie average in the past three months than Fritsch and he ranks ninth among this field throughout the whole season.
Lagergren stepped up last week to get within striking distance of the cut-line with third place, registering 22 birdies along the way. That propelled him to 11th amongst these for birdie average over the past three months and, having closed with 63, clearly has a hot putter.
The trading advice is to stake four units on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 12.011/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. Should either hit the first lay target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money, with substantial extra positions still live.
Back Florian Fritsch 2.5 @ 110.0109/1
Back Joakim Lagergren 1.5u @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay both players 16u @ 12.011/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
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