The Deutsche Bank market is particularly top-heavy with Day, Spieth and McIlroy vying for top-dog status. Paul Krishnamurty recommends a couple of in-form outsiders to upset the golden trio in Boston...
"One of this summer's in-form players...putting has been the key to Lingmerth's success and that looks the key stat to follow this week."
The 2015 PGA Tour season has been dominated with two types of tournament winner. At one end of the scale, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day have been a class apart, with eight titles including three majors between them. At the other, highly implausible rank outsiders have won ten out of 37 events since the turn of the year.
The unarguable claims of the relentless former pair, with Rory McIlroy also involved in a three-way tussle for supremacy, means there seem to be ever more very capable players at enormous odds. Though he is not one of my picks, consider how early FedEx Cup leader and prolific recent winner Jimmy Walker is a 150.0149/1 chance this week.
History suggests the winner of the Deutsche Bank Championship will be a big name, probably one of that golden trio, but outsiders have won this event and plenty more got into contention. The latter is all we ask in order to make a profit, and the following pair look overpriced and well worth a speculative trade.
Odds of 150.0149/1 about David Lingmerth perfectly illustrate the fickle nature of golf betting markets. Winner of the Memorial with three top-six finishes since, the Swede is one of this summer's in-form players. Yet one missed cut at The Barclays, coming off an excellent 12th in the PGA, and he's rated a no-hoper.
Putting has been the key to Lingmerth's success and that looks the key stat to follow this week. Cold putters simply will not contend. Prior to last week, his worst opening round from seven was 70. A similarly good start would put him well within range of this week's unambitious first lay target.
Recent form is so important at this time of the season, with others tiring, perhaps carrying an injury yet soldiering on in search of a play-off miracle. With that in mind, Zac Blair came in for serious consideration at 520.0519/1 after last week's fourth place.
Instead the rank outsider pick goes to the ultra-streaky Jason Gore at 600.0599/1, ten years on from his sole PGA Tour title. During that same season he landed three Web.com titles and played in the final group at the US Open.
Though he never thrived at the higher level, Gore remains a regular contender at the Web.com level and is no less likely than plenty of other 2015 winners. He's on a good run at this pivotal time of year, finishing second at the Wyndham and registering excellent greens in regulation figures of late.
The trading advice is to stake four units in total on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 20.019/1 and 3.02/1. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money with a substantial further position still running.
Back David Lingmerth 3u @ 150.0149/1
Back Jason Gore 1u @ 600.0599/1
Place order to lay both players 16u @ 20.019/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1
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