Find Me a 100 Winner: This pair of outsiders have the right profile for Woburn

Richard Green's stack of Wentworth form could offer a useful clue
Richard Green's stack of Wentworth form could offer a useful clue

As the European Tour returns to Woburn for the first time in 13 years, Paul Krishnamurty has his eye on a couple of very capable outsiders whose accurate style is tailor-made for this tight, tree-lined course...

"There are clear similarities to Wentworth...where Richard Green has recorded nine top-25s in the annual PGA Championship."

If ever an example were needed of the wafer-thin line between winning and losing trading strategy, or indeed the inevitable frustrations involved with backing outsiders in golf, the last two columns provide it.

Last week's great result was, on reflection, extremely fortunate. Both Kristoffer Broberg and Anthony Wall hit their first lay targets, banking a 21 unit profit, despite neither finishing within five of the lead or better than 19th.

However, I felt it was a deserved piece of fortune, as there was a frustrating side to the result. The previous week I'd tipped Florian Fritsch and Joakim Lagergren - the former came very close but missed the target.

Imagine my annoyance when Fritsch was sat in second place going into Sunday at St Andrews, while Lagergren went on to finish fourth. No matter, all these things theoretically even out eventually!

Moving on to my two selections for this week's British Masters. There is no course form since 2002 to work from, but Woburn's style is well-known.

The Marquess Course is a relatively short, narrow, tree-lined par-72, where driving distance is far less important than tee-to-green accuracy. As Steve Rawlings explains in his preview, there are clear similarities to Wentworth.

First at 150.0149/1, Richard Green has recorded nine top-25s in the annual PGA Championship at Wentworth and was 14th on his sole attempt at the Marquess.

74th on the Race to Dubai, Green needs a good run to make the top-60 in order to qualify for the DP World Tour Championship finale and seems to be stepping up to the challenge, registering top-12s on three of his last five starts. Don't worry about the missed cut at St Andrews - that pro-am has never been his thing.

Nobody in this field has hit a higher percentage of fairways in the past three months than Greg Havret, and only Thomas Aiken has all year. Unfortunately, it hasn't yielded any great results besides a few top-25s, including on his penultimate start. Hence odds of 380.0379/1.

Nevertheless, three-time winner Havret has always been the type to throw in one great week - he was runner-up in a decent event last year and, lest we forget, the 2010 US Open! If he's going to peak anywhere, narrow Woburn is the type of set-up. He's made the last three top-30s at Wentworth, including 11th in May's renewal.

The trading advice is to stake 3.5 units in total on the pair, then place lay orders on both at 18.017/1 and 3.02/1, with a view towards banking a profit in-running. If either hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to quadruple our money at least, whilst retaining substantial extra positions.

Recommended bets

Back Richard Green 2.5u @ 150.0149/1
Back Greg Havret 1u @ 380.0379/1

Place order to lay both players 14u @ 18.017/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1

2015 Profit/Loss:

+15.5 units

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles