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Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for the opening FedEx play-off

Golfer Tyrrell Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton boasts great numbers on bentgrass greens
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Paul Krishnamurty's outsiders column has turned a profit for three straight weeks. Check out his picks for The Northern Trust...

"Hatton's limited PGA Tour record is excellent...He's been in promising form all summer, just outside contention. 21st in the US Open was a case in point and he was a distant sixth in the Open."

Back Tyrrell Hatton 1u each-way @ 100/1

Sepp Straka's mid-event charge earned us what could be said was a slightly fortunate profit last week, given that the Austrian was nowhere to be seen on Sunday. It makes up for earlier near-misses that I'm sure even themselves out over the long-term.

On first inspection this week's sole event - The Northern Trust - looks a tough challenge in which to find competitive outsiders. As with the majors, these FedEx Cup events tend to be dominated by the elite and it would be no surprise whatsoever to see one or two market leaders pull away.

Each-way makes sense in stronger field

For that reason, I'm spurning the offer of vastly inflated win-only odds on the exchange. In these big events, each-way looks the better option and, with eight places on offer, our picks don't need to seriously contend for the title in order to pay off.

Back Tyrrell Hatton 1u each-way @ 100/1

Hatton may not be in the class of Koepka et al but he often proves competitive in elite company. His limited PGA Tour record is excellent. Last summer's run of five events yielded top-tens in two majors and top-30s in all three play-offs.

He's been in promising form all summer, just outside contention; 21st in the US Open was a case in point and he was a distant sixth in the Open.

Steve Rawlings notes in his comprehensive preview how well links specialists have fared at this wind-exposed track. Hatton's links record is outstanding and he's also rated a specialist on bentgrass greens by Future of Fantasy.

Harman getting back to his best

Back Brian Harman 1u each-way @ 150/1

Harman is definitely on the comeback trail. The left-hander closed with 65-66-66 to land his third top-eight in six events at the Wyndham, which also includes a trio of 67s at the John Deere. This could be the perfect time to get behind a resurgent multiple winner with an excellent temperament in contention.

Granted, these results were in lesser events on easier set-ups than Liberty National. Harman, however, does have plenty of pedigree in elite events in tougher conditions. He won the 2017 Wells Fargo, was runner-up in the US Open and a regular in contention that year, including on courses that were longer than ideal.

Back Sepp Straka 0.5u each-way @ 200/1

Finally Straka is retained from last week. There's a general perception that ball-strikers will thrive here and the in-form Austrian is one of the best around. He ranks fourth in that stat among these over the past 12 months, and top over the past three months.

He strikes me as a player who suddenly realised he belonged in this company when making the US Open top-30 and is now progressing fast. He was right there for 54 holes at the Wyndham, following third and 12th in the easier Barbasol and Barracuda Championships. A place, even in this company, is realistic, given the wellbeing of his long game.

Furyk best value among the rest

Three others came in for consideration. If Jim Furyk had putted better in recent events, he would have made the plan and I do think [300.0] is an insulting price. He was top-15 on both previous visits to Liberty National and his tee-to-green game remains as reliable as ever.

Emiliano Grillo is another excellent ball-striker to consider. The [220.0] about Kevin Kisner is interesting given his form in big events, but his form isn't all that encouraging.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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Paul Krishnamurty,

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