Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for the 3M Open

Golfer Bronson Burgoon
Could Bronson Burgoon turn his season around in July again?

Check out Paul Krishnamurty's trio of outsider picks for this week's PGA Tour event from Minnesota...

"Seamus Power's birdie stats are eyecatching. At eighth on this season's list, Power is positioned between some of golf's leading names."

Following six relatively obvious winners on the PGA Tour, everything we know about golf betting suggests we are overdue an outsider. The 3M Open certainly represents a better opportunity for this column than the last fortnight at Muirfield Village.

Low-scoring expected at Twin Cities

TPC Twin Cities yielded a -21 winning total in last year's inaugural 3M Open, with rookie Matthew Woolf emerging triumphant. Power off the tee offers an advantage which will help the market leaders but the key determinant seems to be putting, and accumulating plenty of birdies. Those dynamics usually level the playing field.

As always, check out Steve Rawlings' comprehensive preview of the tournament and what to look out for. He reckons there could be a correlation with the Rocket Mortgage Classic at TPC Detroit and I wouldn't quibble with that analysis.

Back Sam Ryder 1.5u @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 8.07/1

It feels frustrating taking much shorter odds this week because the field has decreased in strength. For example I put Sam Ryder up at 800.0799/1 three starts ago. He missed the Travelers cut but has since finished seventh at Muirfield Village. Cue much shorter odds.

Ryder's Bentgrass numbers are encouraging

Nevertheless I shall persevere as this test looks very suitable. Ryder's strength is approach play, setting up birdie chances, and he's much better at taking them on Bentgrass greens. Future of Fantasy rate him eighth on their specialists list - which compares performance across different surfaces.

Moreover, Ryder has a tendency to do his best work at the start of events. Ideal for in-running trading, so let's try that tactic.

Back Bronson Burgoon 0.5u e/w @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

Next another player who is high on that list of Bentgrass specialists. These odds about Bronson Burgoon don't seem generous on the basis of a poor year but hope springs eternal. He usually suffers in the first half of the year before significantly improving.

Burgoon usually improves in the summer

Last year he didn't make a top-40 until late June before registering a spate of top-20s, including three top sixes. He achieved the same in 2018, including two second places. Something similar also happened during his 2017 Kornferry Tour campaign. This test should suit as, even in a poor season, he ranks an impressive 23rd on the PGA Tour for birdie average.

Back Seamus Power 0.5u e/w @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

This selection is made with one eye on that Rocket Mortgage Classic. Seamus Power was 12th in that event three weeks ago, his best result of the season, and was fourth through 54 holes. I was delighted to see Dave Tindall has also put him up for the same each-way bet at 200/1.

The 33 year-old Irishman hasn't performed miracles since graduating from the Kornferry Tour but is not without form - see top-15 finishes over the past two seasons at Quail Hollow, Hilton Head, Southwind and PGA West.

Low-scoring affairs appear to be his optimum conditions and his birdie stats are eyecatching. At eighth on this season's list, Power is positioned between some of golf's leading names. He's the lowest ranked by miles among the top-13.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty


2020: -29 units
2019: +70.5 units

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