Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for the annual Wyndham birdie-fest

Golfer Shawn Stefani
Shawn Stefani ticks numerous boxes for Sedgefield
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Fresh off another profitable trading week, our regular outsiders column takes in the Wyndham Championship. Check out Paul Krishnamurty's trio of big-priced picks...

"McCarthy tops the strokes gained putting list and is fifth for birdie average, so the Wyndham should be a perfect opportunity."

Back Denny McCarthy 2u @ [200.0]

There's just the one main tour tournament to focus upon this week but, in the case of the Wyndham Championship, the lack of distraction is no bad thing. This is one of my favourite tournaments of the year to back outsiders for several reasons.

Sedgefield test ideal for outsider bets

First, the challenge at Sedgefield Country Club is precisely the sort that levels the playing field. Power isn't an issue and low scoring is guaranteed. Second as the final event before the FedEx Cup, the leaderboard usually involves numerous players either side of the 125th place cut line.

In his comprehensive preview, Steve Rawlings takes a detailed look through recent leaderboards, demonstrating how the urgency of that season-defining and potentially life-changing race sparks many to find another gear. As you'll see, he's also backing a spate of outsiders.

First-time winners are common

Steve also notes that five of the last ten Wyndham champions were winning for the first time and all three of my picks fall into that category. As with last week's successful trade on Tom Hoge - who again rates fair value at [250.0] - the plan is to try back to lay trades at enhanced win only odds via the exchange.

Back Sepp Straka 3u @ [140.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [15.0]

First a player who has already risen to the challenge and secured his place. Since an excellent top-30 in the US Open, a trio of top-12 finishes in relatively minor events has earned Straka enough cash to sit 110th on the list. With the pressure now off, there could be more to come.

Everything about this Austrian's stats bode well for this event. In relation to the field, he's first for birdie or better on par-fours, third for birdie average. He's hit an average of 79% greens in regulation in his last six events.

McCarthy suited by birdie-fest

Back Denny McCarthy 2u @ [200.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [15.0]

McCarthy's profile is similar - 113th on the FedEx Cup list, yet to win on the PGA Tour, great stats. He tops the strokes gained putting list and is fifth for birdie average, so the Wyndham should be a perfect opportunity.

He performed pretty well on last year's course debut, sitting 13th through 54 holes. That sparked a solid spell throughout the late summer, resulting with victory in the Tour Championship. McCarthy's hasn't made many headlines at the higher level but he's a solid enough cut-maker and capable of a breakthrough week in ideal conditions.

Stefani playing well enough to challenge

Back Shawn Stefani 1u @ [470.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [15.0]

Of those outside the top-125 looking in, 134th placed Stefani makes most appeal. He finished top-25 in two of the last three renewals here, and is in respectable form, coming in off four straight top-40s.

Probably his best result of the year, weighted by the strength of opposition, was finishing 13th in the Wells Fargo (fifth for putting average) on the same strand of Bermuda greens as he'll encounter here. Again his wider stats bode well for Sedgefield - 11th for gir, 21st for strokes gained approach, 15th for par-four scoring average.

Barbasol contenders look overpriced

Sam Ryder [450.0] was only just pipped for that final slot on the basis of inferiority in recent weeks. He definitely has the right game. At [160.0] Bud Cauley also came in for serious consideration returning to a track where's he's finished third and tenth previously.

Three of last week's Barbasol top-five catch the eye at huge odds. [190.0] about runner-up Troy Merritt is massive given that the form didn't come out of nowhere. Austin Cook [220.0] and Bronson Burgoon [290.0] are both right in the thick of that money list battle.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

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Paul Krishnamurty,

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