Any analysis of the best outsiders to follow in a modern major championship warrants a caveat, if not a health warning. None of the last ten major champions started the week at 99-1 or better, and only one was above 50.049/1 (Patrick Reed in the 2018 Masters).
On the other side of that coin, such is the strength at the top of the market that huge prices are inevitably on offer about world-class players with stacks of major pedigree. Two that particularly catch the eye here are Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen at 160.0159/1 and 190.0189/1 respectively.
Some of that recent trend was due to courses favouring bombers - Augusta National, Bethpage Black have both proved the point this year. Whether Pebble Beach turns out that way, however, is quite another matter.
Short, accurate types to fare better than usual
When the US Open was last held here, it was one by the relatively short-hitting Graeme McDowell, who was followed home by rank outsider Greg Havret - another short but very accurate type. Measuring less than 7,000 yards, with penal rough and small greens, this is certainly not a bombers' paradise.
That said, Steve Rawlings makes a very strong case for the importance of driving distance in his detailed tournament preview.
No doubt, the top-ten will be full of such types. It always is nowadays and the lesser places were predictable in both 2010 and the previous US Open in 2000. There is every chance that a Koepka, Tiger, Rory or DJ will run away with this.
Nevertheless, I'm adamant there is great value around on players who will appreciate the test. As explained below, exchange odds are vastly inflated but, with ten places available on Betfair's each-way market, that is a better way to go. A sizeable place payout is possible without ever threatening the lead.
I've already put up an outsider for our each-way column - Tyrrell Hatton at 125/1. Here's three more.
Resurgent Furyk set for another good US Open
Back Jim Furyk 1u each-way @ 100/1 (1/5 odds, ten places)
Furyk's 200.0199/1 quote on the exchange smacks of age bias. That doesn't begin to reflect either his recent form or superb US Open record. Since first appearing 25 years ago, Furyk has finished top-five on seven occasions, winning in 2003 and finishing runner-up three times since.
Even last year, when hopelessly out of form and distracted by the Ryder Cup captaincy, Furyk sat seventh through 54 holes. He's very much back in the groove this term, finishing runner-up in the strongest field of the year at Sawgrass and contending a few weeks back at the Charles Schwab.
The one slight negative is that his record in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is relatively ordinary. This much tougher test should be much more to his liking and he scores extremely well in the key disciplines. Among these over the past 12 months, Furyk ranks first for driving accuracy, 18th for greens in regulation and sixth for scrambling.
Gritty Kisner well qualified for this test
Back Kevin Kisner 1u e/w @ 100/1 (1/5 odds, ten places)
At the same odds, a similar case is made for Kisner. Each-way at 100/1 is far preferable to 220.0219/1 on the exchange because the place part - 20/1 about a top-ten finish - is massive and much more realistic than winning this major.
That isn't to say he can't, having won the World Matchplay in March, a year after finishing runner-up in the main event, at a course where his lack of power was definitely a disadvantage. Kisner has also markedly upped his game in recent majors - finishing second in last year's Open and leading for a long way at the 2017 USPGA.
His gritty temperament and accurate style should be ideally suited to a traditional US Open challenge. He ranks top-20 for both driving accuracy and scrambling among these over the past year.
Accurate Reavie shouldn't be too far away
Back Chez Reavie 1u e/w @ 175/1 (Without Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth) (1/5 odds, five places)
My final pick lacks their major pedigree and, in truth, is more the type to perform respectably without contending - he finished 16th in the 2017 US Open and between 12th and 22nd in the last three PGAs. Nevertheless, exchange odds of 680.0679/1 about Chez Reavie are massive and there is an even more appealing speciality bet at 175/1.
This market excludes five frontline candidates who will probably fill at least three of the top-ten places. If Reavie does indeed have a solid tournament, challenging for this lesser target is perfectly realistic. He's strong across all areas except power off the tee - ranking second for driving accuracy - and was runner-up at Pebble Beach in 2018.
Former champ Glover rated best of the rest
First reserve is Lucas Glover at 320.0319/1 on the exchange, about whom similar comments apply to Reavie. He's consistent, accurate and ranks first for scrambling among these over the past year. The fact he hasn't made a major top-ten for a decade put me off but the 2009 champion is fancied for a good week.
Scott Piercy also appeals at 380.0379/1 on the basis of his excellent form and the fact he's been runner-up in a tough US Open, at Oakmont. Finally given his scrambling skills and excellent record in top US events, 680.0679/1 about Kiradech Aphibarnrat is an insult.
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