Paul Krishnamurty provides his best three trades at triple-figure odds and several alternative picks for both of this week's events...
"Ancer was runner-up in the opening play-off and has started several tournaments well recently, most notably 64 at the Travelers. It wouldn't take that much to see his odds crash."
Anyone who made a profit backing outsiders last week deserves a medal. Both events were won by predictable types near the head of the market and nobody else traded short. Despite a highly controversial format at the Tour Championship that may well produce another runaway winner, this week fills me with more confidence.
First to Sweden and the Scandinavian Invitational. Hills Sports and Golf Club, which produced a relatively unpredictable leaderboard last year. As argued in making my each-way pick Jordan Smith, the stats from that renewal very strongly emphasise the importance of hitting greens in regulation.
Generally this sort of test - Steve Rawlings accurately describes it as a 'second shot course' in his tournament preview - results in the cream rising to the top. Home favourite Henrik Stenson looks extremely obvious at the head of the market.
Crocker's potential remains under-rated
The best plan may therefore be to back a player who, whilst nowhere near that level, appears to have the potential to reach it. I am adamant that, in the not too distant future, odds of [230.0] about Sean Crocker will look ridiculous.
The Zimbabwean-born American - still only 22 - has made numerous impressions in his short, globe-trotting career. On this tour, this season, he's been runner-up in Morocco and tenth in the China Open. Last time in elite company at the Scottish Open, despite relative lack of links experience, he opened with 66/66. 37th for strokes gained: tee to green reads very well given the high-class nature of that list.
Southgate can go well here again
Several alternatives made the shortlist. Dave Tindall's each-way pick Matthew Southgate is very much shortlisted after three excellent rounds from four last year, on a course that will reward his accuracy. He's [140.0] on the exchange.
I could see Victor Perez [140.0] stepping up his level following a month off. The Frenchman's stats read well for this test and he looked a class act last autumn. Finally among the vast, capable Scandinavian contingent, I'm tempted to give last week's failed pick Anton Karlsson another chance at 175/1 each-way.
New FedEx format is fine for trading
There aren't many kind words around for the new Tour Championship format - a handicap based on the FedEx list - but, so far as the betting is concerned, we should view it as an opportunity like any other.
We are effectively dealing with a conventional in-play leaderboard, with four rounds to go, involving an extremely strong top-three. Sure, one of them could run away with it but we all know how tournaments can change in-running.
For the record, I reckon Justin Thomas will win. He was at the peak of his powers last week, has a great course record and, as Steve Rawlings explains in his comprehensive preview, back-to-back play-off winners are commonplace. I wouldn't lay the [3.5].
Turnarounds very plausible over four rounds
Nevertheless, he is only a bad run of holes away from being back in the pack. As are Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka. There is nothing to say those starting on -2 or -3 can't get involved. And there are some very big names at very attractive odds among that bunch.
For example course specialist and defending FedEx champion Justin Rose is [100.0]. Although he starts eight back, what price would he be if shooting five or six under in the first round? On the same score, Paul Casey [150.0] is another with a fine East Lake record.
If somebody of that calibre can get to within four or five off the pace over the first three rounds, they would be regarded as in contention. As this field is smaller, that could even amount to second or third place.
Good start would propel Ancer into contention
Preference, however, is for a couple of lesser names who are both playing really well right now. Dave Tindall makes the case for Abraham Ancer for Lowest 72 Hole Score here and I reckon, at [170.0], he's got trading potential for the main prize.
Ancer starts in sixth place, six strokes back but only three off third. He was runner-up in the opening play-off and respectable 28th following up at Medinah. He's started several tournaments well recently, most notably 64 at the Travelers. It wouldn't take that much to see his odds crash.
Don't dismiss Kisner at massive odds
Kisner has played well in both play-offs, finishing 12th and ninth. He opened with 64 in the former and something similar would transform his position. Starting eight behind Thomas sounds like an impossible ask but if he could get within, say, four over the first 36 holes that would amount to contention.
There's everything to think he can. Kisner was third here last year and has been ultra-reliable from tee-to-green lately. In each of his last three events, he ranked top-eight for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation.