Find Me a 100 Winner: Short-hitters to thrive at Hamilton

Paul Krishnamurty
04 June 2019

Graeme McDowell has found his range on the greens again

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Paul Krishnamurty previews the Canadian Open, recommending a trio of picks at odds of 130.0129/1 and upwards...

"Nine years ago, Graeme McDowell won the Wales Open before heading to the US Open at Pebble Beach, where he landed a breakthrough major title. Could history repeat itself?"

Back Graeme McDowell @ 130.0129/1

We've got our work cut out this week as the European Tour event has nobody anywhere near our triple-figure odds range. Nevertheless, the RBC Canadian Open has plenty of potential.

As Steve Rawlings explains in his comprehensive preview, outsiders often fare well in this event. Five of the last ten champions started the week at 100.099/1 plus.

Moreover, I reckon conditions at Hamilton GC will prove something of a leveller. At sub-7000 yards, this is a much better opportunity than usual for shorter-hitters and, as Steve notes, veterans could be in their element.

Harman could be on the comeback trail

Back Brian Harman 2.5u @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 10.09/1

Ideally, we are looking for somebody accurate enough to avoid the penal rough, with pinpoint approach play to small, undulating greens, scrambling skills to rescue par when missing them and a hot putter. Everything counts for plenty, except power off the tee.

On his best form, this would be ideal for Brian Harman. Just two years ago, the leftie was runner-up in the US Open, hot off winning the Wells Fargo, and was a near mainstay in contention. I often referred to him as the new Jim Furyk - champion here in 2012 and one of Dave Tindall's each-way picks.

After a barren run, Harman has shown definite signs of life in recent weeks without contending - ranking top-five for both greens in regulation and driving accuracy on his last two starts. He also made the top-20 here in 2012, shooting 63 and 64.

Gmac well up to contending again

Back Graeme McDowell 2.5u @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 10.09/1

At the same odds, another proven winner whose attitude in contention usually impresses. Nine years ago, Graeme McDowell won the Wales Open before heading to the US Open at Pebble Beach, where he landed a breakthrough major title. Could history repeat itself?

If not next week then this is perfectly realistic. He's enjoying a much better season, winning at Corales, and following up with a seventh in the Texas Open. Always accurate if not the longest driver, the putter was a key weapon during his peak and he's recaptured his touch, ranking seventh for strokes gained putting.

Gay underestimated on short course

Back Brian Gay 1.5u @ 400.0399/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1
Place order to lay 30u @ 8.07/1

These conditions are also the perfect time to follow an old favourite of this column. Brian Gay's form is never easy to read because he's simply too short to compete on many courses. The PGA, for example, was way too long and he duly withdrew after 81, and Muirfield Village was far from ideal either.

However he played well enough for 13th at the Charles Schwab and was half of the Zurich Classic team that finished third. In each of the last three summers, Gay has contended a few times at huge odds. As an ultra-accurate driver with a fabulous short game, Hamilton could well be another.

Were it not for the fact Canadians have such a poor record and were slightly bigger odds than 100.099/1 available, Corey Connors may well have been a pick. Given his form in Canada, Kramer Hickok also appeals around the 250.0249/1 mark.

First reserve, though, is Nate Lashley. At 500.0499/1 he's a highly speculative punt but this former Web.com winner should be well suited. He ranks 25th for strokes gained approach and 36th for strokes gained putting. Impressive considering the names around that mark on those lists.

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