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Find Me a 100 Winner: Three picks at 99-1 plus across both tours

Golfer Adam Hadwin
Adam Hadwin has a good record in Florida

Check out Paul Krishnamurty's outsider selections and alternatives for both of this week's main golf events...

"There is much to like about Adam Hadwin's progress and consistency...
his sole PGA Tour victory came in Florida."

Back Adam Hadwin @ [160.0]

Broadly speaking, finding appealing outright bets at 99-1 plus in the Qatar Masters isn't easy. This is a relatively weak field by Gulf standards, this title is more often than not won by a classy type and there are strong cases for the market leaders. Nonetheless, there is one significant angle to exploit - the weather forecast.

Steve Rawlings previews the event in detail, noting the strong correlation with form on links and exposed courses. He rightly says that, given the forecast, backing wind specialists is a must.

Wind master Pavon makes plenty of appeal

Back Matthieu Pavon 2u @ [150.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

I made and repeated a vow over the last couple of years to back Matthieu Pavon whenever the wind was up. His pedigree in that regard during a short career is pretty remarkable - it was the case for nearly all of his best efforts.

It was blowing over 20mph on Pavon's first placed effort, at the 2017 Open de Portugal. Over 30mph when third at the 2017 Scottish Open. Ditto when fifth in Mauritius and then two efforts last summer really confirmed the theory. First after a brutal opening day at Shinnecock Hills, this [1000.0] US Open debutant sat sixth. A few weeks later, he opened with 68/68 over two very windy at the Irish Open.

That this excellent prospect's form has dipped is a worry and explains the odds. However at least he started with 66/68 in the high-class Dubai Desert Classic.

Florida form an essential guide to Bay Hill

The Arnold Palmer Invitational isn't a particularly good event for outsider betting either, given that is more often than not one of the elite. Nevertheless there have been some massive upsets among both winners and places, and there are clues to be learned from studying the vast bank of course form.

Back Adam Hadwin 2u @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

A good all-round game is important around a course that will punish weaknesses - which probably explains why Tiger was so dominant at Bay Hill in his pomp. As always in Florida, form in the state and on Bermuda greens tends to be an essential attribute.

There is much to like about Adam Hadwin's progress and consistency. He's only missed one cut since last August's PGA Championship, registering a top-30 finish in two-thirds of starts, with runner-up at the Desert Classic best.

Hadwin's sole PGA Tour victory came in Florida at the 2017 Valspar Championship and his Bermuda form is deeper. According to the 'location form' at tour-tips.com - measuring the last 15 events in Florida - Hadwin ranks sixth among this field. He was sixth in this two years ago and has arguably improved since.

Back Graeme McDowell 1u @ [570.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

A frequent dilemma involves whether to give long downgraded world-class players a chance to turn back the clock. Last week, I looked hard at Ernie Els and he started strongly, without ever shortening to the levels required to secure a trading profit. Then 56 year-old Vijay Singh pops up in final day contention!

Their experience emboldens my theory that Graeme McDowell still has a title in him somewhere. Still only 39, the former US Open champion struggles to compete with the best for power, but short-hitters often contend at Bay Hill. This week's firm and fast conditions are his ideal and he is a twice former runner-up here.

There have been signs of life over the past year or so. Most cuts are being made and he book-ended 2018/19 with top-20 finishes. Gmac's putting remains solid - he ranks 18th for strokes gained putting and was 16th last term. That should be a big asset this week

Steve reports the Bermuda greens are running extremely fast at 13.5 and, to contend, players will need to hole their fair share. It is notable that the biggest upsets here - back-to-back wins for Matt Every in 2014/15 - were delivered by a player whose primary skill is putting.

Els made the shortlist again at [440.0] - he is playing well enough again to contend somewhere and is a twice former Bay Hill champion. Kevin Kisner [150.0] is a former runner-up of this who should thrive in the firm, fast conditions. [170.0] about Kiradech Aphibarnrat looks wrongly dismissive on the basis of two top-six finishes here, and third at the Mexico Championship.

First reserve, though, is Thorbjorn Olesen at [260.0]. The Dane - a more prolific winner than most - was an excellent seventh on his Bay Hill debut in 2013 and is, in my view, ideally suited to a second-shot course with fast greens.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

-13.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty,

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