Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for both of this week's events

Golfer Clement Sordet
Could Clement Sordet bounce back to form in Portugal?

Paul Krishnamurty searches for value bets among the outsiders on both of this week's golf events...

"The 21 year-old Norwegian also appears to have the right skills-set for Oceanico Victoria - long off the tee and a good putter who makes plenty of birdies."

Back Kristoffer Reitan 1.5u @ 140.0139/1

A fine closing round from Hugo Leon to bag a top-ten finish at the Open de France kept the column's good run going last week and the Chilean is very much on my radar for the Portugal Masters. Unfortunately his exchange odds have fallen below our 99-1 threshold so he's recommended at 66/1 for our each-way column instead.

As Steve Rawlings explains in his comprehensive preview, this event has proved a great target for outsider backers over the past decade. Unfortunately many on my shortlist, like Leon, fall just below our odds range. For example Minwoo Lee at 95.094/1, Nino Bertasio at 90.089/1 or most frustratingly, Padraig Harrington at 90.089/1.

Money list target could offer a clue

Instead, I'll go for two players in urgent need of a great week to propel themselves into the top-110 on the Race to Dubai, in order to save full playing rights for next season.

Back Kristoffer Reitan 1.5u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 10.09/1

From 144th place, Kristoffer Reitan needs to do something special but 18th last week in Paris was a promising sign that he's rising to the challenge. The 21-year-old Norwegian also appears to have the right skills-set for Oceanico Victoria - long off the tee and a good putter who makes plenty of birdies.

Stats-wise, Reitan ticks all of those boxes. He ranks tenth among these for driving distance over the past year and a very respectable 42nd among the entire European Tour for strokes gained putting this season. A birdie average of 3.69 also reads pretty well ahead of this challenge.

Sordet worth chancing after last year's effort

Back Clement Sordet 1.5u @ 290.0289/1
Place order to lay 15u @ 20.019/1

In the case of Sordet, we're having to take a punt that he'll suddenly improve on a poor recent run but this big-hitting Frenchman's pedigree is much better than the odds and perhaps, starting 113th on the RTD, urgency will spark something.

Four times a winner on the Challenge Tour, Sordet started the season well enough, with second place in Oman the highlight. He's shown some aptitude for this challenge, turning around a terrible start on last year's course debut by shooting -15 over the final three rounds.

Dahmen has started the season well

There's much guesswork to be done before betting on the inaugural ZOZO Championship. In his preview, Steve concludes that the soft conditions will ultimately yield a birdie-fest and that is hard to argue with. As a short, tree-lined course with small greens, accurate iron-play could be the key to set up birdie chances.

Back Joel Dahmen 1u each-way @ 125/1

As with last week, this is a smaller field with elite market leaders - one of whom might very well run away with it. Therefore, I'd rather take the 125/1 each-way option here than Dahmen's 240.0239/1 win only odds on the exchange.

Over the past couple of years, Dahmen has caught the eye as a type suited to low-scoring events where accuracy is the key. The highlight was runner-up at the Quail Hollow but, more recently, he was ninth on his penultimate start at the Shriners and last week he improved round-by-round. In this short season, he ranks ninth for strokes gained: tee to green.

Varner rated best of the rest

Finally a couple of alternatives to consider in Japan. Harold Varner 230.0229/1 has a better record at this time of year, especially in overseas events, and comes in off eight consecutive cuts made. And 350.0349/1 about Nate Lashley is yet another insulting quote about an improving player - again who seems ideally suited to birdie-fests.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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