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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsiders to back at Green Eagle

Golfer Padraig Harrington
Padraig Harrington has come good at this stage of recent seasons
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Paul Krishnamurty recommends his best three outsider picks for this week's event from Germany and notes some alternatives...

"Harrington ranks 11th for par-three and eighth for par-five performance. Useful, given that there are five of each at Green Eagle."

Back Padraig Harrington 0.5u each-way @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

For the second week running, we're all in on the European Tour. The two Porsche European Open renewals at Green Eagle saw loads of outsiders in contention - if not clear signals about what to look for.

The sheer length of the course suggests focusing on power. So does the lack of penal rough noted by Steve Rawlings in his comprehensive preview. However as he points out the hole lengths will vary widely and, in fact, previous results emphasised the importance of accuracy.

Each-way preferred given strong favourites

Note that all three picks are available at much higher win only odds on the exchange - in the last two cases, double. With a stack of PGA Tour stars highly likely to dominate, though, I'd much prefer to bet each-way and get eight places on side.

Back Zander Lombard 1u each-way @ 125/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

Further clues are that the course is reportedly playing firm and fast and there's plenty of wind forecast. Links form could therefore be a good indicator. Here's an outsider in good form with links credentials and a previous top-five finish on the course.

Lombard is in better form than before that 2017 renewal after registering top-16s on three of his last five starts. One of those was his second straight top-ten in the Irish Open, and he also played well for a long way at the 2018 Open.

The South African ranks third among these for strokes gained: approach - which must count for plenty on what looks ultimately a second-shot course.

Quiros can resume recent improvement

Back Alvaro Quiros 0.5u each-way @ 175/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

With the wind up and relative freedom off the tee, I could see the Qatar Masters and Portugal Masters providing a correlation. Here I'm trying a former winner and specialist in both events who seems to be on the comeback trail. At 36, he's young enough and last won only two years ago.

Quiros was third on his last visit to Germany in June and followed up with second at Valderrama. For that reason, I'll overlook the fact he shot 84/75 here last year. He still hits it a mile and could destroy the quintet of par-fives.

Watch Harrington at this time of year

Back Padraig Harrington 0.5u each-way @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

For similar reasons, Harrington is rated far superior to his odds. The dual Open champion certainly won't mind the wind and remains top-class when avoiding trouble off the tee. Amongst these over the past year on this tour, he ranks 11th for par-three and eighth for par-five performance. Useful, given that there are five of each at Green Eagle.

For each of the last three seasons, Pod has arrived in Europe after a grim summer and made an impact. Last autumn he managed three top-seven finishes. In 2017, he was fourth in Turkey and in 2016 he won the Portugal Masters.

First reserve is Min Woo Lee [140.0], who ranks first for par-five performance among these. The 21 year-old is a serious prospect and has shown his best on firm, fast courses in Australia. Steve's pick Guido Migliozzi also appeals at [110.0]. One other whom my stats study pointed towards is Hugo Leon [410.0].


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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Paul Krishnamurty,

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