Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for the Oman Open and Honda Classic

Golfer Scott Vincent
Scott Vincent went close in Australia last time
Join today

Paul Krishnamurty has his eye trained on progressive twenty-somethings in his hunt for outsider value on both of this week's main events...

"Burns is evidently a top prospect. His college career was brilliant and he's already produced several strong PGA Tour performances. The best time to back him is on Bermuda greens."

Back Sam Burns e/w @ 150/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

There's a strong common theme between this week's trio of selections, across both European and PGA Tour events. All are highly progressive twenty-somethings, still in the early stages of their careers and yet to become anything like household names. Winners of the future, potentially still below the market radar.

Two Zimbabwe-born bombers with stacks of potential

My Oman Open picks have plenty more in common. Both were born in Harare and are trying to build their careers across multiple tours. Both are powerful off the tee, which must be a weapon given the wide fairways at this Al Mouj track. Both have early tee-times - which appears favourable according to the early weather forecast.

Back Scott Vincent 2u @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

Vincent reached the semi-finals of the World Super 6 last time out - his joint best result on the European Tour. Elsewhere, he's been a regular in contention, finishing runner-up three times among eight top-seven finishes in Asia during 2018. He usually ranks very high for greens in regulation - arguably the best indicator of a player's potential.

Another positive for this week is that Vincent topped the European Tour's strokes gained putting stats in 2018. Putting was very much the key stat last year and experience of these relatively rare Paspalum greens offers a definite advantage.

In his comprehensive preview, Steve Rawlings lists several relevant courses and events with Paspalum. One such event is the Fiji International, in which Vincent was ninth on debut in 2017.

Back Sean Crocker 2u @ [250.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [8.0]

Crocker is actually American, having left Harare at the age of five. He enjoyed an excellent college and amateur career in the States, notably losing to Bryson Dechambeau in the semis of the 2015 US Amateur. He's made an almost immediate impact since turning pro 18 months ago.

Almost a year ago to the day, he sat third, bang in contention, through 54 holes at the Qatar Masters, before completely folding under the final day pressure. That form hadn't come from nowhere though and he soon became a frequent contender on the Challenge Tour, registering a quartet of top-three finishes.

Still only 22, Crocker lacks consistency and hasn't achieved anything since respectable top-20s in Australia and South Africa before Christmas. He is better than a [250.0] chance though, and will sooner or later be making a mockery of those odds somewhere.

Burns a must-bet on Bermuda

Back Sam Burns 1u each-way @ 150/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

Next a peer of Crocker from his amateur days - Burns is only 39 days older. He faces a far more competitive field in the Honda Classic but proved by finishing eighth on course debut last year that he's up to the task. Plus as Steve notes in his preview, outsider winners are fairly common here.

Burns is evidently a top prospect. His college career was brilliant, he won very quickly on the Web.com Tour and has already produced several strong PGA Tour performances. The best time to back him is on Bermuda greens - as he tops Future of Fantasy's Bermuda Specialists by some distance.

Although up to [270.0] is available on the exchange, the each-way terms make that route preferable. At 150/1, we're taking 30/1 about a top-eight finish - a target he achieved last year. As we saw last week when bagging a place from Kiradech Aphibarnrat, it can also pay off despite a runaway winner ruining win only trading plans.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

-7.5 units

Join today

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles