Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for both of this week's events

Golfer Brian Stuard
Brian Stuard has a great record at coastal tracks like El Camaleon

Paul Krishnamurty recommends three picks at 99-1 or better plus several alternatives for this week's events on the European and PGA Tours...

"Equally encouraging is Korhonen's excellent record in South Africa, which reads better than his general standard. Eight starts here since 2014 have yielded six top-16 finishes, including a pair of top-threes."

Back Mikko Korhonen 2u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 10.09/1

Surprisingly for this time of year, a long list of candidates came in for serious consideration this week, in which both tournaments have plenty of outsider potential. I'll mention them all but for starters, three of our five each-way selections for the Nedbank Golf Challenge - Mikko Korhonen, Scott Jamieson and Richard Sterne - are all trading at 100.099/1 plus on the exchange.

Korhonen primed for another strong bid

Back Mikko Korhonen 2u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 10.09/1

Whilst I generally avoid crossing selections across columns in favour of variety, Korhonen is worth breaking the rule. I'm convinced he's ideally suited to the Sun City test, especially after he contended for 54 holes on debut at a course which we all used to think demanded previous experience.

As Steve Rawlings explains in his comprehensive preview, hitting fairways and greens is essential to contend here. That is precisely the combination to bring the best out of Mikko. He's tenth among these for total driving among these over the past 12 months, and 25th for greens in regulation in 2019.

Equally encouraging is Korhonen's excellent record in South Africa, which reads better than his general standard. Eight starts here since 2014 have yielded six top-16 finishes, including a pair of top-threes in the Tshwane Open.

Sullivan respected as an alternative

In another week with fewer choices, Andy Sullivan may well have made the staking plan at 160.0159/1. He's another with great form in South Africa - twice a winner elsewhere and third at this course in 2016. Whilst Sullivan hasn't been driving the ball as well as usual this season, his last two performances were encouraging.

The Mayakoba Golf Classic is, on balance, a better target for outsiders because it is played at one of those short tracks where dozens more are capable of winning. Recent leaderboards have included all sorts of types.

Promising Redman due a big week

Back Doc Redman 1u each-way @ 100/1 (1/5 odds, eight places)

First, a player who keeps catching my eye as potentially over-priced, especially at this level. Given the spate of brilliant youngsters making an instant impact, I'm surprised that former US Amateur champion Doc Redman makes fewer waves in the market.

That is because the 21 year-old hasn't been seen on the front page of a leaderboard since finishing solo runner-up (albeit distant) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has nevertheless been building a good early portfolio - nine cuts from 12, including four top-25 finishes.

Tee-to-green accuracy is a pre-requisite of success around El Camaleon and Redman certainly fits that bill. Among these over the past 12 months, he ranks second only to Viktor Hovland for total driving and fifth for greens in regulation. One would think that would yield a big pay cheque soon.

Stuard always respected at El Camaleon

Back Brian Stuard 2u @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 25u @ 8.07/1

There is no substitute for course form here and my final selection has that in spades. Stuard has twice been runner-up among three top-tens from six tries at this course. He's also got bags of form at similar, coastal tracks Waialae and Harbour Town that correlate really well with El Camaleon.

Moreover, Stuard is in decent form having made seven of his last eight cuts. He is very much one of those who is too short to contend in half the tournaments he enters, but top-fives at the Rocket Mortgage and Shriners show he can still compete given the right conditions.

Another reluctant exclusion is Brandon Wu - the youngster who earned us a trading profit at the Houston Open. This top prospect is still available at 160.0159/1 on the exchange. Otherwise Sepp Straka 200.0199/1 and Joel Dahmen 210.0209/1 are both attractively priced on their best form and arguably best on accuracy-orientated tracks.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

2019 Stats:

+81 units

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles